Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to deepen Beijing\u2019s influence in Central Asia at a major summit, reminding a parallel Group of Seven conclave of China\u2019s sway outside the U.S.-led world order.<\/p>\n
The two-day China-Central Asia Summit will assemble the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from Thursday in the Chinese city of Xi\u2019an. Trade ties and regional security concerns will likely dominate talks at the inaugural in-person meeting, along with Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Xi is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the summit announcing new measures for cooperation among the six nations, state media reported citing an official from China\u2019s Foreign Ministry. Footage of traditional performers greeting each leader in Xi\u2019an received prominent coverage on state television Thursday.<\/p>\n
The summit unfolds in a split screen with President Joe Biden\u2019s effort with G-7 leaders in Japan this week to hammer out a unified response to Chinese \u201ceconomic coercion.\u201d As China finds itself increasingly isolated within the U.S.-led system, the two meetings symbolize the calcification of a multipolar world in which Global South nations are being courted as important strategic partners.<\/p>\n
While Russia and China are united in their mission to counter the U.S., Xi\u2019s decision to assemble five former Soviet states without President Vladimir Putin demonstrates Beijing\u2019s increasingly senior position in their \u201cno limits\u201d relationship. Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has become reliant on China to provide both economic cover from Western sanctions and much-needed diplomatic support.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Russians have accepted to some degree they cannot compete with China,\u201d said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. \u201cThe two see themselves increasingly reshaping the world order together.\u201d<\/p>\n
As Xi tries to reorient global affairs away from Western groupings, Pantucci says he\u2019s creating more China-centric structures. \u201cBeijing is trying to offer an alternative to the Western defined post-World War II order, which the G-7 in many ways represents,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year deepened a tussle for influence in the resource-rich Central Asian states, which were already on a trajectory of economic realignment toward China. <\/p>\n
Beijing has since coupled investment in energy, pipelines, power stations, roads and railways with top-level diplomatic exchanges. Xi chose to reemerge on the global stage from three years of COVID-19 isolation in Kazakhstan last September, attending his first in-person summit in years in neighboring Uzbekistan days later. <\/p>\n
That defied expectations his first international trip would be a Group of Twenty conclave in Bali. Chinese leaders will meet Central Asian counterparts at three major summits this year, at least.<\/p>\n
The U.S. and European Union have also stepped up their outreach. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan earlier this year, while EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell went to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in November. Last month, U.S. and EU officials made a joint trip to Kazakhstan, offering help to minimize any economic impact of averting sanctions evasion by Russia.<\/p>\n
While the former Soviet states have avoided backing Russia\u2019s war \u2014 a move that would anger Western partners \u2014 their economic incentive remains with their neighbors. Last year, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan each did more trade with China than with either Russia or the G-7 bloc, according to the International Monetary Fund. Chinese imports from the region are mostly commodities, including cotton, oil, natural gas and copper, according to official trade data.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina knows that Russia is no longer in a position to provide anything that Central Asia desires: be that international prestige, economic cooperation or security cooperation,\u201d said Niva Yau, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s Global China Hub. \u201cWorking with China is still a preference.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, Moscow remains an important player in the region. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union free-trade zone. They and Tajikistan are also members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia, Armenia and Belarus, a defense alliance that Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called upon for military aid to help him crush violent unrest in January last year.<\/p>\n
The summit also comes at a slightly awkward moment for Xi. Last month, China\u2019s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, questioned the independence of ex-Soviet states during an interview with a local broadcaster. While Beijing said those remarks were the envoy\u2019s personal views, Lu has not been recalled.<\/p>\n
Xi will also likely use the meeting to bolster his flagship Belt and Road Initiative, which was dealt a blow this month when Italy signaled it intends to exit the investment pact this year. Three Baltic states have already quit what was the so-called 17+1 eastern European framework with China, weakening another grouping Beijing had created to counter US global influence. <\/p>\n
China\u2019s military aggression toward Taiwan \u2014 a self-ruled island Xi has vowed to control, by force if necessary \u2014 and ambivalence over Russia\u2019s invasion, have triggered a rethink in Europe on relations with the world\u2019s second-largest economy. <\/p>\n
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will next week lead a delegation to a Shanghai business forum, which has also invited a group of sanctioned tycoons, exemplifying how China can shelter Moscow from Western economic sanctions.<\/p>\n
As the tussle for global influence intensifies, G-7 leaders in Japan this week are preparing to embark on a \u201cbattle of offers\u201d with Beijing and Moscow, according to people familiar with the discussions and documents seen by Bloomberg News. <\/p>\n
While the EU and U.S. say they are \u201cderisking\u201d not \u201cdecoupling\u201d from China, such increased competition looks set to bind Beijing and Moscow more tightly \u2014 with Xi as the stronger partner. That means the Chinese leader\u2019s huddle with Putin\u2019s former Soviet partners is unlikely to cause any rupture with the Kremlin. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina is seen as a friendly partner where there is competition, but that doesn\u2019t get out of control,\u201d said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. <\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t expect Central Asia to provide any meaningful cracks in the deepening China-Russia axis that\u2019s increasingly asymmetrical and dominated by Beijing, which has so much leverage.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n
(With assistance from Lucille Liu, James Mayger and Francesca Stevens.)<\/p>\n
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