Once described by U.S. diplomats as a \u201cpoison pill\u201d ex-general accused of human-rights abuses, Prabowo Subianto remade his image as an affable grandpa to win over Indonesia\u2019s young electorate and is set to become the next president of Southeast Asia\u2019s biggest economy.<\/p>\n
The 72-year-old defense minister secured around 60% support, according to unofficial quick counts from multiple independent pollsters. That\u2019s more than the 50% needed to win Wednesday\u2019s vote outright and avoid a run-off that his backers feared could see victory slip from his grasp. The election commission will declare the official result in coming weeks.<\/p>\n
The win marks a stunning turnaround for a three-time presidential candidate with a reputation for being temperamental, pounding tables and fiery nationalist speeches. <\/p>\n
Prabowo, the former son-in-law of Indonesia\u2019s late dictator Suharto, was fired from his post as lieutenant general in 1998 amid accusations of human rights abuses.<\/p>\n
He was accused of the abduction and disappearance of student activists during the pro-democracy protests that eventually led to Suharto\u2019s resignation. Prabowo also headed the army\u2019s special forces unit, Kopassus, and was accused of rights violations in the former province of East Timor. <\/p>\n
Prabowo has denied any wrongdoing, saying his missions were sanctioned by superiors.<\/p>\n
Classified diplomatic cables from the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, written in 2008 after Prabowo entered politics and made public by WikiLeaks, describe him as ambitious and unpredictable.<\/p>\n
\u201cTo say that Prabowo has a controversial reputation is an understatement,\u201d reads an August 2008 cable. \u201cHis direct links with gross human rights violations under Suharto make him a poison pill for many Indonesians,\u201d reads one from November 2008. Prabowo was for years denied a visa to the U.S.<\/p>\n
In the years after his dismissal from the military, Prabowo lived in exile for several years before successfully casting himself as a businessman and farmer. <\/p>\n
In 2014, the first of two times he lost a presidential election to Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, he dismissed worries about his past. <\/p>\n
\u201cNelson Mandela was blacklisted from the United States at one time,\u201d Prabowo said in a interview aired on Al-Jazeera at the time. \u201cAm I not in good company?\u201d<\/p>\n
The last time, in 2019, he fought a bitter months-long campaign to overturn the results before eventually joining Jokowi\u2019s cabinet as defense minister, a move aimed at healing the nation after the campaign\u2019s acrimony led to deadly clashes in Jakarta. <\/p>\n
This election cycle, Prabowo recast himself on social media as an affable, cat-loving, grandfatherly figure in a bid to win over the under-40s that makes up more than half of the nation\u2019s 200 million registered voters. <\/p>\n
Many see the president\u2019s implicit support for Prabowo as Jokowi\u2019s way of continuing to influence politics \u2014 and cement his legacy \u2014 after he steps down later this year.<\/p>\n
Indonesia\u2019s trillion-dollar economy, dubbed by Deutsche Bank as a \u201crising economic powerhouse\u201d in a recent report, has grown at an annual average of 5% over the past decade \u2014 except during the pandemic. <\/p>\n
Jokowi poured money into infrastructure and attempted to move the archipelago up the global metal supply chain \u2014 which has led to a surge in foreign direct investment in the last five years and created much-needed jobs. His goal is to make Indonesia a developed country by 2045. <\/p>\n
Prabowo has pledged to continue on that path. \u201cWe are not ashamed to say: we are team Jokowi,\u201d Prabowo said in a speech at a rally in Jakarta prior to the election. \u201cWe\u2019ve been selling our natural wealth to foreign nations for minimal prices. That doesn\u2019t make sense. We have to process all our natural wealth on Indonesian soil.\u201d<\/p>\n
While most analysts expect him to continue many of Jokowi\u2019s policies, given Prabowo\u2019s past volatility, temper and single-minded pursuit of the top job, there is no guarantee that he will faithfully execute Jokowi\u2019s vision, or be as pliable as the Indonesian president might like him to be.<\/p>\n
As Jokowi\u2019s defense minister, Prabowo largely kept a low profile. Tasked with modernizing the country\u2019s bloated and creaking military, he focused on the acquisition of big-ticket weapons platforms from a variety of countries, which his critics questioned for interoperability issues. Broadly, they say the challenges faced by Indonesia\u2019s military remain unchanged under Prabowo.<\/p>\n
Over the past few months, Prabowo consistently led the polls through the months-long campaign against former governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. <\/p>\n
Prabowo did so, in part, by securing Jokowi\u2019s support, most importantly by picking his 36-year-old son to be his running mate.<\/p>\n
Prabowo has pushed some ideas beyond promising to continue Jokowi\u2019s policies. He\u2019s pledged a 400 trillion rupiah ($25.5 billion) free school lunch and milk program as his flagship economic policy. It\u2019s an expansion of his 2019 campaign promise to provide free milk for school children.<\/p>\n
The program is expected to help boost economic growth to 6%-7% by helping local farmers and by freeing up more income, according to Drajad Wibowo, an economist affiliated with Prabowo\u2019s campaign. His team has also said that the program won\u2019t fuel inflation or raise debt.<\/p>\n
Prabowo could \u201cvery significantly\u201d expand social welfare measures including food and nutrition programs as well as public health infrastructure, according to Doug Ramage, managing director for BowerGroupAsia, Indonesia.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe must keep in mind that there\u2019s no precedent of a president affording their predecessor much influence,\u201d Ramage said. \u201cSo we should expect a Prabowo presidency, not a third Jokowi term.\u201d<\/p>\n
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