NATO members now talk privately about a Russian attack on one of them as a danger that demands an urgent response, as they grow to doubt that the U.S. will maintain its traditional role of protecting Europe as part of the alliance.<\/p>\n
On Friday President Joe Biden did his best to rule out the word “panic,” but in tip-toeing around it did more than anyone else to describe Europe\u2019s mood.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy God,\u201d the president told reporters at the White House, condemning Congress for taking a \u201ctwo-week vacation\u201d without acting on the package for aid to Ukraine, which has been opposed by Republicans. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is bizarre, and it\u2019s just reinforcing all the concern, and almost \u2014 I won\u2019t say panic \u2014 but real concern about the U.S. being a reliable ally.\u201d<\/p>\n
Whatever you call it, his European allies\u2019 mounting alarm springs from the realization that they\u2019re at a moment in which Russia has been emboldened by its battlefield successes, the U.S. may scale back support for their region and they themselves have done too little to prepare. <\/p>\n
That pessimism dominated conversations this weekend at the Munich Security Conference, where leaders and defense officials gather to take stock of the world\u2019s biggest geopolitical threats. <\/p>\n
Senior defense officials in attendance voiced concern about the U.S.\u2019s failure to deliver billions of dollars of funding for Ukraine, and said they were planning for scenarios in which this very public deterioration in support could encourage Russia to make a direct attack on a NATO ally. <\/p>\n
Compared to the resolve of previous gatherings, the prevailing sentiment in Munich this year was uncertainty, according to one official, who like others interviewed for this article asked not to be named when discussing private conversations. <\/p>\n
\u201cI can\u2019t predict if and when an attack on NATO territory might occur,\u201d German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Bloomberg in an interview. \u201cBut it could happen in five to eight years.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Ukrainian city of Avdiivka fell on the second day of the proceedings in Munich, handing Moscow its most significant battlefield victory in nearly a year. Only the afternoon before Russia had announced the death of opposition activist Alexey Navalny, underscoring the futility of domestic opposition to Vladimir Putin\u2019s increasingly repressive regime. <\/p>\n
As Ukraine runs out of military supplies, the backdrop to the discussions was that a $60 billion aid package for Kyiv remains held up in Congress. That was a very public emblem of the prospect of wavering U.S. commitment to Ukraine that dominated conversations behind the scenes. <\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s army is already having to ration its artillery as ammunition promised by its allies fall short. Bloomberg reported last month that Kyiv finds itself outgunned three-to-one on the battlefield.<\/p>\n
J.D. Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio, who is an opponent of Ukraine aid and a close ally of Donald Trump, voiced a sentiment held by many in his party when he said his country needs to pivot the focus of its foreign policy to Asia, leaving it with fewer resources to lavish on its friends across the Atlantic. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe problem with Europe is it doesn\u2019t provide enough of a deterrence on its own because it hasn\u2019t taken enough of an initiative,\u201d Vance said on a panel in Munich. \u201cThe American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.\u201d <\/p>\n
Attempts to unlock emergency U.S. aid have been stuck in a partisan deadlock for months, leaving Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to issue increasingly urgent appeals on Congress.<\/p>\n
Biden said he called Zelenskyy on Saturday to let him know he\u2019s \u201cconfident we\u2019re going to get that money.\u201d The U.S. president blamed lawmakers\u2019 failure to approve emergency aid to Ukraine for the fall of Avdiivka, and has warned that more Ukrainian cities might be lost if the funding isn\u2019t passed.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re hoping that U.S. congressmen understand the gravity of the vote that\u2019s lying ahead of them,\u201d Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins said in an interview. Referring to \u20ac50 billion euros ($53.9 billion) in aid for Ukraine recently agreed to by the European Union, he said: \u201cwe came through, and now the ball is in the U.S.\u2019s court.\u201d<\/p>\n
France and Germany on Friday signed long-term security accords with Ukraine \u2014 an arrangement unprecedented for both countries. <\/p>\n
\u201cAs Europeans, the only element of pressure we have in our hands is to set an example and that\u2019s what we\u2019ve done,\u201d French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne told reporters on the sidelines of the conference. <\/p>\n
Even though Germany has only just met the NATO-wide 2%-of-GDP target for defense spending, Pistorius, the country\u2019s defense minister, floated an increase in military spending to as much as 3.5% of GDP.<\/p>\n
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, in her speech on the opening day of the Munich gathering, issued a denunciation of Trump\u2019s views without ever mentioning him by name, as long lines of attendees waiting to see her address were barred due to an organizational mishap. <\/p>\n
Some people in the U.S. want \u201cto embrace dictators and adopt their repressive tactics and abandon commitments to our allies in favor of unilateral action,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
But her ability to persuade attendees was constrained from the outset, with the influence of her administration\u2019s Republican opponents the source of allies\u2019 concern. <\/p>\n
Europeans were shaken by Trump\u2019s suggestion a week earlier that he would let Russia attack countries that didn\u2019t meet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization\u2019s targets for defense spending.<\/p>\n
Dutch premier Mark Rutte, who is the front-runner to become the next NATO chief, chided those complaining about Trump\u2019s rhetoric.<\/p>\n
\u201cStop moaning and whining and nagging about Trump \u2014 we don\u2019t spend more on defense or ramp up ammunition production because Trump may come back,\u201d Rutte said. \u201cWe have to do this because we want to do this, because it\u2019s in our interest.\u201d<\/p>\n
Zelenskyy invited Trump to travel with him to the front lines and see the conflict for himself. It\u2019s important to maintain ties to U.S. officials from both sides of the political divide, he said from the Munich stage.<\/p>\n
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas seemed to suggest that U.S. officials\u2019 just crossing the Atlantic may have won some hearts and minds. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe feeling was that being here they also maybe understand better what is at stake,\u201d she told Bloomberg in an interview, adding that after attending meetings with senators and representatives she was optimistic Congress may unblock the funds.<\/p>\n
Despite the difficult situation, there were some glimmers of hope for the Ukrainian side. Officials pointed to Ukraine\u2019s claims that Russia was losing men at an astounding rate \u2014 seven soldiers for every Ukrainian. And plans by allies to send Ukraine AI-enabled swarm drones opens up the prospect for Ukrainian forces to outmaneuver Russia\u2019s artillery barrages.<\/p>\n
Even if U.S. funding comes through, equipment will take time to reach Ukraine, according to a senior congressional aide. They pointed to the need for air-defense interceptors, a shortage of which has already resulted in grave damage from Russian missile barrages.<\/p>\n
Kallas warned that \u201ctime is working in favor of Putin.\u201d <\/p>\n
She was echoed by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who was speaking on the same panel: \u201cIt\u2019s not only about making the right decision,\u201d he said, \u201cbut it\u2019s about making the right decision early.\u201d<\/p>\n
_____ <\/p>\n
(With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Samy Adghirni, Daryna Krasnolutska, Sam Dagher, Agatha Cantrill, Colum Murphy, Ilya Arkhipov, Peter Martin, Ellen Milligan, Chris Miller and Alex Wickham.)<\/p>\n
___<\/p>\n