A highly anticipated defense forum in Singapore kicked off with a friendly handshake between Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. It ended Sunday with few other signs of optimism that the world\u2019s biggest economies could avoid an eventual collision. <\/p>\n
Austin used his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue to chide China over its refusal to meet unless the US lifted sanctions on Li, saying that \u201ca cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for a substantive engagement.\u201d The remarks came as a Chinese vessel harassed an American warship transiting the Taiwan Strait, drawing attention to the biggest potential military flashpoint between the two powers. <\/p>\n
Li fired back on Sunday, accusing \u201csome big power\u201d of creating divisive alliances, bullying other nations, spurring an arms race and seeking to contain China with its support for Taiwan. China\u2019s military \u201cwill not hesitate for a second\u201d to move on Taiwan if necessary, he said, while dismissing questions about near-collisions in disputed waters. Competing militaries should stay away and \u201cmind your own business,\u201d Li said. <\/p>\n
Other countries at the event, meanwhile, repeatedly spoke of the dangers posed by rising US-China tensions and the need to prevent anything like Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine from occurring in Asia. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere was a real sincerity and urgency that what happened in Ukraine must not happen in Asia,\u201d Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen told reporters after a lunch that included all of the most senior defense officials at the event. \u201cMany ministers have said if you have a simultaneous war in Europe and Asia it\u2019s catastrophic globally.\u201d<\/p>\n
The back-and-forth between the US and China at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue was always expected to be fraught, particularly after President Joe Biden\u2019s administration declined to remove sanctions placed on Li in 2018 over his role in purchasing a Russian missile defense system. It was also the first major defense forum since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s visit to Taiwan in August prompted China to conduct unprecedented military exercises surrounding the island. <\/p>\n
Despite the lack of a U.S.-China breakthrough in Singapore, signs are emerging of increased communication ahead of key summits later this year \u2014 the Group of 20 in India and the APEC forum in San Francisco \u2014 that will place Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the same room. <\/p>\n
CIA Director William Burns made a secret visit last month to meet intelligence officials in Beijing, and a senior U.S. Treasury official last week met with China\u2019s new envoy to the U.S. Daniel Kritenbrink, the top U.S. State Department official for Asia, is set to travel to China this week.<\/p>\n
And while Li didn\u2019t formally meet Austin in Singapore, the Chinese defense minister sat down with nearly a dozen other delegation heads \u2014 including his U.K. counterpart, Ben Wallace, who emerged from the hour-long conversation saying talks were productive and that he looked forward to visiting China soon. Li also said he had \u201cpretty good\u201d talks with Yasukazu Hamada, the defense minister of Japan, another staunch U.S. ally. <\/p>\n
Still, the Singapore meeting underscored growing divisions between China and the U.S. over the basics of the global order. And no issue was more conspicuous than the response to Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, which helped spark a surge in defense spending around the world. <\/p>\n
The U.S. and its allies warned of the risks of allowing Russia to keep territorial gains, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorious saying a Putin victory would send a message \u201cthat aggression and unprovoked use of military force are acceptable, can be successful.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a war where the global rules-based order is on trial,\u201d Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said. \u201cWhat happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a complete breach of the rules-based order where a large neighbor invades a smaller neighbor, not by reference to the rules of law, but by reference to power and might. And that can\u2019t be allowed to stand in the world today, in Europe or in the Indo-Pacific.\u201d<\/p>\n
Chinese officials, by contrast, blamed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for helping trigger Russia\u2019s war while warning that US alliances in Asia, along with newer groupings like the Quad and Aukus, would similarly destabilize and divide Asia. They accused the U.S. of selectively applying international rules and norms \u2014 a point underscored by the fact that Washington hasn\u2019t punished Indian officials for buying the same Russian weapons systems that made Li subject to sanctions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIts so-called rules-based international order never tells you what the rules are, and who made these rules,\u201d the Chinese defense minister said. \u201cIt practices exceptionalism and double standards and only serves the interests and follows the rules of a small number of countries.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some representatives at the meeting appeared sympathetic to China\u2019s viewpoint. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who plans to run for president next year, unveiled a new peace plan for Ukraine that would freeze troops in place and create a demilitarized zone. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, who also attended the meeting, said it \u201csounds like a Russian plan.\u201d<\/p>\n
Prabowo also warned that new technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing raises the stakes in any potential fight between the U.S. and China. \u201cIf there is a nuclear war, the difference between those directly involved and Indonesia is we will die a slower death,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Austin, the U.S. secretary of defense, sought to temper fears of a war, saying \u201cI don\u2019t think that conflict is inevitable, nor do I think at this point that it\u2019s coming.\u201d He denied the Chinese claim that the US was seeking to create a version of NATO in the region and said that American policy toward Taiwan hadn\u2019t changed, adding that a war \u201cwould affect the global economy in ways that we cannot imagine.\u201d <\/p>\n
The next day, China\u2019s defense minister said Beijing was willing to back up its claim to Taiwan \u201cregardless of any cost.\u201d<\/p>\n
To underscore his point, Li referenced a song called My Motherland, written for a 1956 movie about the Korean War that showed a heroic Chinese victory against American and South Korean troops.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs the lyrics of a well-known Chinese song goes, when friends visit us, we welcome them with fine wine,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen jackals or wolves come, we will face them with shotguns.\u201d<\/p>\n
——–<\/p>\n
(With assistance from Peter Martin, Jamie Tarabay, Alfred Cang and Clarissa Batino)<\/p>\n
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