WASHINGTON \u2014 Before Mitch McConnell could come to terms with his exit plan, he had to win a campaign within himself.<\/p>\n
The Senate Republican leader\u2019s second freeze-up<\/a> last August \u2014 in which he fell silent for more than 30 seconds before cameras \u2014 had both shaken his fragile mortality and steeled his headstrong resilience. He resolved to prove to himself \u2013 and the world \u2013 he could recover to full strength.<\/p>\n When the Kentucky Republican eventually felt good about his health at the end of November, according to a longtime adviser, it allowed McConnell to begin soberly confronting the two issues that would define his 2024: How to sunset his tenure as leader and how to close his fracture<\/a> with an ascendant former \u2013 and possibly future \u2013 president.<\/p>\n The McConnell aide insists the questions were separate \u2013 that the Kentuckian\u2019s decision to relinquish power wasn\u2019t related to Donald Trump\u2019s reemergence as his party\u2019s presidential nominee. But it\u2019s hard to ignore the parallel tracks of the twin decisions.<\/p>\n McConnell, now 82, began drawing up his plan of how he wanted to vacate leadership in January, nearly the same time he instructed his premier political aide, Josh Holmes, to begin a rapprochement with Trump that would lead to his endorsement eight weeks later. And McConnell will leave his leadership post this November, shortly following a presidential election that could once again place Trump in the White House.<\/p>\n \u201cI think he has signaled the leader of the party is Donald Trump, not Mitch McConnell,\u201d said Brian Ballard, a veteran Republican lobbyist and fundraiser in Washington.<\/p>\n The \u201cOld Crow,\u201d as Trump called him, is bowing to two factors beyond his control: Advancing age and an enduring realignment of the GOP.<\/p>\n McConnell still has eight months left in his record 18-year run as Senate leader, \u201cenough gas in the tank to thoroughly disappoint my critics,\u201d as he mentioned on the Senate floor during his Feb. 28 announcement.<\/p>\n Capitol Hill watchers believe the early disclosure of his choice was intended to release the irrefutable tension with the Trump-aligned wing of the party that is younger, brasher and less concerned with the upper chamber\u2019s seniority system and genteel traditions.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a generational shift Congress-wide. You\u2019ve got the old guard, a lot of them are moving on,\u201d said Ryan Taylor, a former Senate Republican aide to Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi and senior vice president at Forbes Tate Partners in Washington. \u201cHouse Democrats just went through this. It\u2019s just Senate Republicans\u2019 turn.\u201d<\/p>\n But others are openly wondering whether McConnell has instantly rendered himself a lame duck, surrendering the hammer of long-term consequences for increasingly defiant caucus members.<\/p>\n \u201cDoes letting the tension out \u2026 is that a release valve for people or does it actually just kind of make him a bigger and bigger punching bag over the next six months where it\u2019s harder to get anybody to really follow his lead?\u201d asked former Capitol Hill aide Brendan Buck on his \u201cControl\u201d podcast.<\/p>\n The more likely truth is that McConnell\u2019s power over his 49-member caucus has already severely diminished, as most recently evidenced by the 26 Republicans<\/a> who cast votes against the $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel, a cause he\u2019s framed as existential to U.S. security. The bill managed to clear the Senate on Feb. 13, thanks to Democrats, but has not received a vote in the Republican-led House, despite McConnell\u2019s public pleadings.<\/p>\n \u201cHe is basically a dead duck,\u201d said Michael Williams, an associate professor of Public Administration and International Affairs at Syracuse University.<\/p>\n \u201cThe last of a dying breed. The internationalist GOP is a thing of the past. \u2026 The young bucks, like J.D. Vance and Josh Hawley are not going to tow the same global American leadership line as McConnell, (John) McCain, Bill Frist and Trent Lott.\u201d<\/p>\n Another truth is that once lawmakers resolve this year\u2019s appropriations process and wrestle with TikTok, the summer months will be devoid of much legislating, as campaigning becomes the priority, not only back home, but within the Capitol\u2019s halls. That\u2019s when a divided Republican caucus begins to suss out who they want to succeed McConnell.<\/p>\n Longtime McConnell deputies and friends, Sens. John Thune of South Dakota and John Cornyn, are the early favorites for leader. But the younger, anti-McConnell faction is already rattling the cage for bigger change.<\/p>\n Last week, Rand Paul even floated himself as a contender posting an online unscientific poll<\/a> showing overwhelming support for Kentucky\u2019s junior senator. Put aside the fact that the vote for Republican leader is determined by senators, Paul called his survey\u2019s result \u201ca wake-up call for the establishment: their influence dwindles beyond D.C.\u201d<\/p>\n It was an early warning that many Republicans are already eager to move past the McConnell era and that McConnell\u2019s successor will have to operate differently in order to attain unity in a fractious caucus.<\/p>\n Three years after calling Trump \u201cpractically and morally responsible for provoking\u201d the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S., McConnell had tasked Holmes to find a pathway toward reconciliation between two men who couldn\u2019t be more different temperamentally.<\/p>\n More precisely, he wanted Holmes to see if he could arrive at a place where if McConnell lent his support to the former president, Trump would respond with niceties, not negativity.<\/p>\n While McConnell\u2019s perfunctory endorsement of Trump in early March is what captured headlines \u2013 and stoked ire from critics \u2013 underareported is what McConnell gleaned from the bargain: Unity on their preferred candidates in Senate races.<\/p>\n The McConnell-Trump breach caused dissidence in races during the 2022 cycle, when Republicans again fell short of reclaiming a majority. More than anything else, McConnell sought to avoid a divide on the 2024 map, where there are majority-making opportunities in Ohio, Montana, West Virginia, Michigan and Maryland.<\/p>\n It might have been untenable for him to stay mum on Trump through November 2024, but his greater goal of leaving his successor a Senate majority was intrinsically tethered to singing from the same songbook as the former president.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the only thing he cares about,\u201d said the aide.<\/p>\n It took eight weeks of negotiations between Holmes and Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, but they arrived at a place where the principals\u2019 statements were not particularly warm, but sufficient for a marriage of convenience.<\/p>\n \u201cIt should come as no surprise,\u201d McConnell said in his written statement on March 6, acting as if his blessing was never in doubt.<\/p>\n \u201cThank you, Mitch. I look forward to working with you,\u201d Trump replied on the social media platform, Truth Social, hours later.<\/p>\n The goal is a functional relationship between their teams, not a personal one with each other.<\/p>\n McConnell and Trump still haven\u2019t spoken since late 2020, and aides said there was no immediate plan for them to do so.<\/p>\n Even among McConnellites, there have been divergent interpretations of what McConnell actually said out loud.<\/p>\n While the assumption gelled that McConnell\u2019s announcement was a signal he wasn\u2019t running in 2026, some allies indicated they never heard that.<\/p>\n \u201cI have not seen any indication of him staying that,\u201d said a former top aide in his Senate office. \u201cPresumably some other time he\u2019ll have more to say about 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n McConnell did not explicitly say it in his Feb. 28 Senate speech, but an aide confirmed he would not run for reelection to an eighth term in 2026, when he\u2019ll be 84. A spokesperson in McConnell\u2019s Senate office declined to elaborate beyond McConnell\u2019s speech.<\/p>\n His slow-rolling departure will leave a cavernous gap in Kentucky politics in the decade to come, with no successor, however immediately capable, able to muster anything close to McConnell\u2019s seniority or institutional knowledge.<\/p>\n But the twilight of his career could offer one last boon for the commonwealth, as McConnell will be relieved from navigating conference personalities and acting as a heat shield during political maelstroms.<\/p>\n Beginning in 2025, he\u2019ll be a rank-and-file member \u201cin a different seat,\u201d as he stated, but not without power.<\/p>\n Boasting the second-most seniority in the GOP conference behind only Iowa\u2019s Chuck Grassley, 90, he\u2019s expected to make a play for chairman of the all-powerful Senate Appropriations Committee. He has long made clear to colleagues and friends that robust committee work would be the curtain call to a Senate career that would span 42 years, if his health holds.<\/p>\n \u201cIf he wants to be the 800-pound gorilla on the Appropriations Committee, he can be. And I suspect he\u2019ll put a particular focus on defense appropriations,\u201d said Scott Jennings on his \u201cFlyover Country\u201d podcast. \u201cWe\u2019re going to have Mitch-a-palooza. He\u2019s being re-released into the wild.\u201d<\/p>\n Jennings, one of McConnell\u2019s longest-serving outside political confidantes<\/a>, runs a Louisville-based public relations firm and is a commentator for CNN.<\/p>\n Unlike Paul, McConnell takes great pride in unfurling tens of millions of dollars for airport upgrades, military training facilities and wastewater treatment plants across Kentucky. The last two years could allow him to widen the spending spigot.<\/p>\n But almost as soon as the 2024 election is resolved and McConnell\u2019s successor is elected, attention will turn to the once-in-generation open Senate seat in Kentucky.<\/p>\n Reps. Andy Barr, Jamie Comer and Thomas Massie, as well as former attorney general Daniel Cameron and current Attorney General Russell Coleman, are obvious possibilities.<\/p>\n State Auditor Allison Ball and State Sen. Julie Raque Adams have also been named in conversations with Republicans.<\/p>\n But just like everything else in Republican politics these days, the contours of the race could ultimately be determined by Trump, if he\u2019s reelected.<\/p>\n There\u2019s some irony in the argument that only if Trump is defeated again by President Biden this November will McConnell be able to exercise more power over Kentucky\u2019s future, if he so chooses.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Trump loses, I would argue McConnell could make the case that he was right on the tone and tenor and politics and could enhance his standing in Kentucky,\u201d said Neil Chatterjee, a former policy adviser to McConnell and Lexington native.<\/p>\n \u201cEither run himself or help someone that he favors succeed him in the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n _____<\/p>\n \u00a92024 McClatchy Washington Bureau. Visit mcclatchydc.com<\/a>. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.<\/a> <\/p>\n KeyWords:: 7789ad5c-5c86-49eb-9ee1-226c41db93ea WASHINGTON \u2014 Before Mitch McConnell could come to terms with his exit plan, he had to win a campaign within himself. The Senate Republican leader\u2019s second freeze-up last August \u2014 in which he fell silent for more than 30 seconds before cameras \u2014 had both shaken his fragile mortality and steeled his headstrong resilience. He […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-138094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=138094"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":138095,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138094\/revisions\/138095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=138094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=138094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adn.monetizemail.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=138094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}‘Gas in the tank,’ but how much?<\/h3>\n
A marriage of convenience with Trump<\/h3>\n
Mitch-a-palooza ’25 to Kentucky’s open seat in ’26 <\/h3>\n
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\nBC-SENATE-MCCONNELL:WA
\nBC SENATE MCCONNELL WA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"