Secretary of State Antony Blinken got a muted reception when he arrived in Beijing: a lone Foreign Ministry official there to meet him and no red carpet, just red lines on the runway that social media users joked were a symbol of China\u2019s unwillingness to compromise on issues like Taiwan.<\/p>\n
But as he left less than 48 hours later, Blinken said the trip had achieved its goal because the two sides had restored some senior-level communications. President Xi Jinping pronounced the progress \u201cvery good,\u201d warm words from a taciturn leader who held off confirming a meeting with Blinken \u2014 the highest-level U.S. official to visit Beijing in five years \u2014 until the last minute.<\/p>\n
The most positive outcome was the pledge to keep talking, including a plan for Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang to visit Washington in the next few months. U.S. officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry are also expected to travel to China soon.<\/p>\n
Beyond that, the discussions yielded few specific takeaways. The two sides discussed increasing passenger flights and the need for more exchanges between students and business leaders, though offered nothing concrete. And the U.S. didn\u2019t get the one thing it really wanted: restored communications between the two countries\u2019 militaries that China severed after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August.<\/p>\n
\u2018Notable Gaps\u2019<\/p>\n
That resuming some conversations counted as success was yet another sign of how sour the relationship has become between the world\u2019s two largest economies. Threats lurk in every corner that could derail even this modest progress: Taiwan, human rights, the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, semiconductor policy and so many other issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you look at the realistic expectations that Blinken and his team set out for the visit, they were achieved and frankly, you could say even exceeded,\u201d said Wendy Cutler, a veteran U.S. diplomat and trade negotiator. \u201cThat said, when you parse through what was publicly announced, there are some notable gaps, including what the next steps will be beyond the reciprocal visit of the foreign minister to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n
Given the current state of ties, with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warning of possible military conflict if there\u2019s no course correction, regular meetings are at least likely to reassure countries in the region worried about a potential war. The Blinken visit sets the stage for a possible Biden-Xi meeting at the Group of 20 summit in India in September and smooths the way for the Chinese leader to visit the U.S. for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe did a hell of a job,\u201d Biden said when reporters asked about Blinken\u2019s trip. \u201cWe\u2019re on the right trail here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Blinken\u2019s trip, initially set to take place in February, was scrapped amid the furor over an alleged Chinese spy balloon spotted over U.S. territory. By the time he departed for Beijing, U.S. partners were all but begging the two sides to make nice even as they set a realistic tone.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou go with our full support,\u201d Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told Blinken at a press conference on the day he departed. He then turned to reporters: \u201cBut having said that, speaking now as a diplomat, I want to make this plea: Please don\u2019t put too much weight on poor Tony\u2019s shoulders.\u201d<\/p>\n
Colm Rafferty, chairman of AmCham China, said in a Tuesday statement that the organization had been advocating for \u201cconstructive, results-oriented\u201d talks. \u201cOur businesses understand the irreplaceable value of in-person engagement, especially when tackling challenging issues,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The challenges were plain to see over the course of Blinken\u2019s visit. The mood was tense as Qin, China\u2019s foreign minister, met Blinken at the entrance of a villa at the Diaoyutai guest compound. The former imperial garden, where Chinese officials host foreign dignitaries, had signs warning visitors to avoid \u201csloppy dress\u201d and peeking through windows.<\/p>\n
The two sat down at a long table with aides, nearly all wearing surgical masks. One of Blinken\u2019s top policy advisers didn\u2019t remove his aviator sunglasses before sitting down, and was photographed sitting across from the Chinese delegation looking like he was ready for more than just nuanced diplomacy. <\/p>\n
The next morning, the secretary of state set out to meet Wang Yi, the top foreign policy official in the Communist Party\u2019s system, who has traded barbs with Blinken over the years.<\/p>\n
Wang was waiting stone-faced and the two barely spoke before they sat down. China issued a readout after that meeting blaming the U.S.\u2019s \u201cwrong perception\u201d of the nation as the root cause of difficulties between them. <\/p>\n
Economic Woes<\/p>\n
Still, China has reasons to cool tensions, seen most emphatically by the fact that Xi met Blinken at all. The official Xinhua News Agency published a photo of Xi\u2019s meeting with Blinken focusing on the symbolism of the lotus flowers \u2014 a homonym for peace in Chinese \u2014 placed in the middle of the room.<\/p>\n
Beijing is facing an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape, as the U.S. blocks China\u2019s access to high-tech chips to thwart its military progress and puts pressure on Xi to condemn Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Geopolitical strains are also deterring foreign investment as China\u2019s economy faces a host of challenges: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Sunday cut its forecast for growth this year in the world\u2019s second-biggest economy to 5.4% from 6%.<\/p>\n
Equity traders appeared to be more anxious about China\u2019s economic outlook, with a slow stimulus rollout adding to their concerns. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong slumped on Tuesday, leading losses in Asia, after a relatively modest reduction to the mortgage reference rate disappointed the market. Property names were among the biggest losers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe economy in China is not in great shape,\u201d George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University\u2019s China Centre, told Bloomberg TV. \u201cHe wants to appeal and be seen to be constructive to Global South partners.\u201d<\/p>\n
Washington Hawks<\/p>\n
While Xi left Blinken waiting until the last minute, he gave a welcome reception to former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates last week, pledging cooperation on technology and pandemic prevention \u2014 two of the biggest areas China has clashed with the U.S. in recent years.<\/p>\n
In a news conference to end the trip, Blinken emphasized that the U.S. didn\u2019t want to contain China, an accusation made by Xi himself earlier this year. The top U.S. diplomat emphasized that derisking was different than decoupling, noting that the U.S. and China had record trade of nearly $700 billion last year. Numerous luminaries have visited in recent weeks, including Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon. <\/p>\n
Still, the political environment in the U.S. ahead of next year\u2019s election \u2014 coupled with broader concerns among U.S. allies about China \u2014 limits how far either side can go. <\/p>\n
Biden faces increased hawkishness back home, as seen by an announcement Monday that four U.S. lawmakers will travel to Detroit in a bid to push automakers Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. to reduce their supply-chain exposure to China. That reflected a broader push by world leaders to ease what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called \u201cdangerous dependencies\u201d built up in areas like raw materials. <\/p>\n
Indeed, the mood on China in Washington has soured so much that many lawmakers oppose any conversations at all. Representative Michael McCaul called his trip a signal of the Biden administration\u2019s \u201cmisguided and myopic pursuit of engagement.\u201d<\/p>\n
No Reset Happening<\/p>\n
In Beijing, there\u2019s also little incentive to compromise, including on demands that the U.S. lift sanctions on Defense Minister Li Shangfu before resuming high-level military talks. China also worries that engaging with the U.S. military will only backfire for Beijing, according to Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group\u2019s Senior Analyst for China. <\/p>\n
Officials in Beijing believe the talks \u201cwill in turn encourage more U.S. behavior that they don\u2019t like, namely more American military presence and activities close to China,\u201d she told Bloomberg TV on Monday.<\/p>\n
Soon after Blinken\u2019s plane left Beijing, China\u2019s Foreign Ministry sounded a downbeat note, portraying the Xi meeting as purely a matter of \u201ccourtesy\u201d and laying the blame on the U.S. for the frictions, according to state TV. <\/p>\n
\u201cNo reset is in the offing, or even possible,\u201d Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security, wrote in a tweet. \u201cEven cooperation in areas of theoretical shared interests \u2014 climate change, global health, nonproliferation \u2014 is very difficult when most of the relationship is based in rivalry and the attempt to achieve advantage.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014With assistance from Philip Glamann, Shikhar Balwani, Lucille Liu, Jing Li, Yihui Xie and Jenni Marsh.<\/p>\n
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