Capt. Mohammed Houssein Omar patrols one of the most dangerous coastlines in the world. Until the Israel-Hamas conflict reignited seven months ago, it was largely people smugglers and drug traffickers that occupied his fleet of nearly 70 coast guard patrol boats. But since Houthi militants from neighboring Yemen began attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, the coast guard officer has never been so stretched. <\/p>\n
\u201cNobody deserves to be attacked with missiles,\u201d he says. \u201cThose targeted in the Red Sea are innocent, so we are there to help.\u201d<\/p>\n
Djibouti, an authoritarian former French colony of just 1 million people, only gained independence in 1977 and is surrounded by bigger, more unstable neighbors. It is bordered to the north by Eritrea, a pariah state for the best part of two decades; to the south by Somalia, which has been ravaged for years by an Islamist insurgency; and to its west by Ethiopia, recovering from a brutal civil war that killed more than 500,000 people in just two years, according to U.S. and European Union estimates. <\/p>\n
The location of the tiny East African nation, at the point where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden, has made Djibouti \u2014 a predominantly Islamic country \u2014 a strategic priority for major powers. It\u2019s home to Chinese, French, Italian, Japanese and U.S. military bases. Germany would like its own naval base in the country too, according to diplomats in the region. Tokyo has recently supplied new coast guard patrol vessels. <\/p>\n
In parallel, it has developed a reputation as an intelligence hub, say Western diplomats. Imagine a Cold War Berlin on the Horn of Africa, but this time acting as an intersection between the West and the Arab world. The up-market Djibouti Palace Kempinski Hotel is popular with the tight-knit intelligence community.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s an old saying: \u2018Where goods flow, information flows.\u2019 This place is a harbor,\u201d one diplomat says. \u201cIntelligence officers need hubs.\u201d<\/p>\n
These international investments in military hardware and intelligence gathering have never looked more important. The Iran-backed Houthi militants, who say they are targeting Israeli-linked cargo ships, have caused the most significant diversion of seaborne trade in decades. In the first two months of 2024, trade through the Suez Canal, which sits at the top of the Red Sea, dropped by 50% from a year earlier, according to the International Monetary Fund. <\/p>\n
Djibouti \u2014 an area the size of Massachusetts \u2014 has successfully positioned itself over the last two decades as an indispensable asset in the region. That gives it some leverage, but it will need to walk a diplomatic tightrope to retain its neutrality which has been under pressure since the Red Sea crisis erupted. <\/p>\n
Critical of Israel\u2019s military action in Gaza, which has left more than 35,000 people dead, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory, Djibouti has nevertheless quietly allowed naval vessels from the EU\u2019s Aspides mission \u2014 with orders to protect cargo ships in the Red Sea \u2014 to refuel and use its port facilities. Several vessels damaged by Houthi missiles have been repaired by local workers in Djibouti.<\/p>\n
As a direct consequence of the Houthis\u2019 violent campaign, Djibouti’s container port is undergoing an economic boon. More ships now dock to unload goods onto smaller vessels \u2014 part of the country\u2019s growing transshipment business \u2014 to take them through the perilous Red Sea. On a recent visit, dozens of engineers and crane operators were hastily loading containers onto vessels, as four recently purchased, state-of-the-art German cranes hovered overhead.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are doing good business because of the bad luck of others,\u201d says Aboubaker Omar Hadi, chairman of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority. He estimates that the country\u2019s port revenue will increase by a third to about $600 million this year compared to 2023.<\/p>\n
Since November there have been more than 150 attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, according to data published by the EU naval force operating in the region. A 10-day lull in incidents in the middle of April has given way to renewed attacks in recent days, with 11 in May so far. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe want to have this crisis stop as soon as possible,\u201d says Hadi, \u201cso we can see where we are going business-wise.\u201d <\/p>\n
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If Djibouti\u2019s economy is built around its ports and location, its survival depends \u2014 say officials and ministers \u2014 on its neutrality. And that is being severely tested.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed says that after the Houthi missile attacks began in October, the U.S. asked for permission to conduct operations against the group from inside its naval base in Djibouti. The government said no. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s been very clear since the beginning. We do not want to be brought into a war,\u201d Mohamed tells Bloomberg News. \u201cThe U.S. is there and we have told them \u2018Be careful, don\u2019t bring the war here.\u2019 \u201d Djibouti remains \u201con good terms with the U.S.,\u201d he adds. It is also renegotiating a defense co-operation treaty with France, that includes a commitment by the former colonial power to provide military help if Djibouti needs it.<\/p>\n
The U.S. has been allowed to install an anti-missile defense system in the country to protect its base, but isn\u2019t authorized to launch surveillance drones to monitor the Houthis from Djibouti, or fire missiles. Separately, China asked the Djiboutian government not to allow American planes to fly too low over its naval base, diplomats say, underlining the delicate balancing act the authorities are having to play. The Chinese Embassy in Djibouti did not respond to request for comment.<\/p>\n
Asked if Washington had been refused the right to conduct offensive operations from Djibouti, the U.S. Department of Defense said it was taking steps to \u201cbolster regional deterrence\u201d against Houthi attacks. \u201cDjibouti has proven itself to be a willing and able partner in the fight against violent extremist organizations,\u201d said a DoD spokesperson. \u201cHouthi attacks against commercial shipping are an international problem demanding an international solution.\u201d<\/p>\n
The U.S. response to Djibouti\u2019s rejection of its request was the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational coalition force based out of Bahrain and intended to deal with Houthi-led attacks, according to diplomats in Djibouti who asked to remain anonymous discussing national security issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the time of the Cold War you either had to be for the West or the East,\u201d says Alexi Mohamed, a senior adviser to Ismail Omar Guelleh, Djibouti\u2019s 76 year-old president, emphasizing why neutrality is critical to the country. \u201cThe state of mind of Djiboutians and the foreign policy of the president is to have an objective position on any situation, whether it\u2019s Gaza or what\u2019s happening on the Red Sea.\u201d<\/p>\n
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At the forefront of those government policy objectives will be ensuring that the ruling party remains in power and doesn\u2019t fall victim to either outside or domestic pressures. Guelleh \u2014 one of only two presidents since independence \u2014 is expected to step down in 2026 after five terms in office with speculation over whether his successor will be able to guarantee stability. <\/p>\n
He won the last election with more than 97% of the vote, according to the Interior Ministry, but opposition parties boycotted the poll, claiming that the election was not going to be free and fair, according to Freedom House.<\/p>\n
The ruling party dominates the state apparatus and uses security forces and other administrative resources to marginalize, disrupt, and suppress independent political activity, say critics, something denied by the government. The population is strictly monitored, with for instance imams having their speeches reviewed by the authorities before they are delivered. Officially this is to stop extremism but it also helps smother criticism.<\/p>\n
Strong economic growth in recent years has masked the government\u2019s failure to tackle joblessness and extreme poverty which could make it vulnerable to dissent, say diplomats. Yet there are few visible signs of that in a tightly controlled society. More than 75% of the population is aged under 35, and nearly half of those of working age are unemployed, according to the World Bank, which also found that at least one in five of the population is living in extreme poverty \u2014 surviving on less than $2.17 a day.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the billions of dollars poured into the ports has brought only limited spillover benefits for the wider population, with many jobs filled by expatriates due to the lack of qualified local workers. The Dutch engineering and defense conglomerate Damen Group is currently building a new shipyard to handle demand from the Red Sea. The Djibouti Ports Authority, which will own the facility, insists that it will open in June and be properly staffed. <\/p>\n
Djibouti\u2019s service sector, which incorporates its port, transport and logistics facilities, accounts for 80% of growth in the country, according to the World Bank, making the economy highly reliant on infrastructure investment. That has had a knock-on effect, with sovereign debt levels rising from 35% of gross domestic product a decade ago to 70% today as state-owned companies borrowed to fund expansion. At the same time, trade with Ethiopia accounts for 80% of Djibouti\u2019s port activities, leaving it highly vulnerable to shocks inside its larger neighbor. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe strategy behind diversifying our economy is to bring Djibouti out of only being a service economy to one that is much more active and innovative,\u201d says Mohamed, the presidential adviser. He cites the example of Fortescue Future Industries Ltd., the Australian investment company, which is working with the government on a project to develop a green hydrogen sector and activities in construction and fisheries as ways the government is looking to refocus the economy.<\/p>\n
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On Feb. 18, the Belize-flagged MV Rubymar was 11 miles from the Djibouti coast when it was hit by Houthi ballistic missiles. At 10:45 p.m., the captain radioed the coast guard for help. The vessel, carrying 21,000 tons of fertilizer, was sinking. Its 24-strong crew abandoned ship and the coast guard quickly hatched a rescue plan.<\/p>\n
Within 24 hours the crew \u2014 made up of 11 Syrians, six Egyptians, three Indians and four Filipino sailors \u2014 had been fished out of the water and brought back to port by Omar\u2019s coast guard team. <\/p>\n
\u201cOur job is to save people,\u201d Omar says as he offers up prayers for a safe return at the start of the daily patrol of Djibouti\u2019s 195-mile coastline, \u201cwherever they come from.\u201d<\/p>\n
Not everybody is as fortunate as the rescued crew of the Rubymar. About 200,000 people every year fleeing conflict, oppression and climate change across East and North Africa travel to the Djiboutian port town of Obock \u2014 a four-hour drive north of the capital Dijbouti City. From there people smuggling networks take them across the Bab al-Mandab Strait to Yemen and on to the Gulf states where they hope to find work.<\/p>\n
In April, the Djibouti coast guard rushed to a capsized boat just 200 meters offshore close to Kh\u00f4r \u2018Angar, south of Eritrea. At least 38 people including children returning home from Yemen drowned.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe helped recover the bodies and facilitate burials,\u201d Omar says, explaining how Djibouti has become a haven for migrant families. \u201cIt\u2019s terrible work. It\u2019s so sad to see what some people are forced into doing.\u201d<\/p>\n
As they leave harbor the coast guard crew move past Moucha Island and into the Gulf of Aden where several large vessels from the Arabian Sea are waiting to dock. A blue, green and white Djiboutian flag flutters off the back of the patrol boat. The country\u2019s future, Omar says, depends on its ability to keep the surrounding chaos at bay. But that could be difficult. <\/p>\n
\u201cDjibouti is the eye of the cyclone,\u201d says Hadi, from the Free Zones Authority. \u201cIn the middle it\u2019s calm. But Somalia, Yemen, Eritrea and Ethiopia are around the eye.\u201d<\/p>\n
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(\u2014With assistance from Alex Longley.)<\/p>\n
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