Last week, Taiwan got a new president. Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, was sworn in after a rough and tumble campaign, succeeding his old boss, former President Tsai Ing-wen. Elections in Taiwan are always a sore spot for China, which claims the self-ruled island as its own and regards any expressions of Taiwanese sovereignty as a violation. But Lai\u2019s inauguration is an especially thorny subject for Beijing because the Chinese Communist Party views him as a dangerous instigator of Taiwanese independence.<\/p>\n
Chinese officials were always going to pick apart Lai\u2019s inauguration speech<\/a>. And sure enough they did. During the speech, Lai pledged to defend Taiwan\u2019s democratic character, resume tourism with the Chinese mainland and seek talks with Beijing, relatively tame remarks compared with his comments as a younger lawmaker, but\u00a0China took serious issue with his contention that any diplomacy between the two should be conducted in a spirit of equality.<\/p>\n In China\u2019s view, Taiwan is a renegade province, not a sovereign state with territorial integrity. According to China\u2019s Taiwan affairs office, Lai\u201csent a dangerous signal<\/a> of seeking \u2018independence\u2019 and undermined the stability of the Taiwan Strait\u201d in the process. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was more blunt and undiplomatic, calling Lai \u201cdisgraceful.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n The strong rhetoric was only the half of it. Shortly after the inauguration, China\u2019s military, the People\u2019s Liberation Army, or PLA, authorized joint air and sea drills around Taiwan. During the first day of the exercises, 49 PLA aircraft<\/a>, 15 navy vessels and 16 coast guard ships were detected in waters around the island, an extension of the flyovers Beijing has conducted for years now. All of a sudden, Lai had to perform his commander-in-chief duties, traveling to a marine brigade to visit the troops, where he committed himself to defending Taiwan from all threats.<\/p>\n All this may sound a bit scary if you don\u2019t monitor the Taiwan Strait on a weekly basis. Yet the dozens of fighter aircraft and surface vessels taunting Taiwan\u2019s defenses has as much to do with political signaling to the new Taiwanese authorities as it does with subjugating the island. In effect, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party bureaucracy want to send Lai and his new administration a message: Not only are they prepared to act militarily at a time of their choosing, but they will respond to even the slightest insult.<\/p>\n None of this bodes well for Lai\u2019s agenda over the next four years. Domestically, Taiwan is feeling the pinch of a rising cost of living, high housing prices and near-stagnant wages for younger workers. While Lai may have extended his party\u2019s stay in the presidential office for a third consecutive term, he lost the majority in the legislature to the opposition Kuomintang. Lai won only 40% of the popular vote, which isn\u2019t exactly a mandate. In addition, a significant portion of the Taiwanese electorate is tired of the two main political parties, so much so that a third-party candidate received more than a quarter of the vote.<\/p>\n Things aren\u2019t looking particularly great internationally, either, but the situation could be worse. Taiwan, after all, is now the golden child in Washington, with Republican and Democratic lawmakers alike agreeing that U.S. shipments of military aid to the island need to be ramped up. Some foreign policy thought leaders are now equating the defense of Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion as the equivalent of defending global democracy, foisting an almost mystical status on the island\u2019s shoulders. Europe is no longer as resistant to calling out Chinese belligerence in the Taiwan Strait as it used to be, which is a pretty important development given that the European Union\u2019s trade with Beijing last year reached $800 billion<\/a> in today\u2019s dollars. More European navies are sailing through the Taiwan Strait, although the notion they would get involved in a potential war between China and Taiwan is slim given the limited naval capacities of many European states.<\/p>\n What\u2019s depressing, at least from Lai\u2019s perspective, is that the chances for diplomacy with China today are close to nonexistent. Tsai, Lai\u2019s predecessor, was also interested in establishing durable communications with Beijing during her eight years in office, but Xi ignored her government\u2019s entreaties. It\u2019s difficult to envision Xi being any more sympathetic to someone like Lai, who is commonly seen as more of a hard-liner on the issue of Taiwanese independence than Tsai was.<\/p>\n Taipei will keep trying to kick-start a dialogue, even if it\u2019s on more mundane, nuts-and-bolts issues such as crisis communications between their respective militaries and increasing economic exchanges. But diplomacy is only as effective as the stakeholders\u2019 willingness to partake in it.<\/p>\n What, then, should we expect over the next four years? While a growing number of national security officials in Washington are extremely concerned about China taking some kind of military action against Taiwan \u2014 Xi has tasked China to be prepared to invade the island by 2027 \u2014 this is the absolute worst-case scenario. While the side-by-side comparisons between China and Taiwan are beyond stark \u2014 China has more of everything, such as people, wealth, fighter aircraft, ships, missiles, ground troops and formal diplomatic relationships \u2014 far too many underestimate just how logistically complicated such an operation would be for the PLA, which hasn\u2019t fought a war since 1979.<\/p>\n What\u2019s more likely to occur is a continuation of the last four years: regular Chinese military drills around the island, purchases of more anti-ship and anti-air weapons by Taiwan to make Beijing think twice about ordering military action and yet more hair-raising in Washington. Realistically, that might be the best we can do.<\/p>\n ____<\/p>\n