When an outraged Ukrainian lawmaker berated JD Vance at this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference over the Republicans\u2019 blocking of aid to his country, the U.S. senator listened patiently. But Oleksiy Honcharenko couldn\u2019t change his mind.<\/p>\n
That task will now fall to European allies and Ukrainian politicians after former President Donald Trump picked Vance as his running mate in his election campaign, in a decisive break with the U.S. foreign policy old guard. <\/p>\n
European officials said Vance\u2019s nomination confirms their worst fears about the potential next Republican administration. It\u2019s a sign they will have to do more to prove to the U.S. that it has interest in defending the continent through continued support for Kyiv.<\/p>\n
Vance is \u201cvery smart, sly and cold-blooded,\u201d Honcharenko told Bloomberg on Tuesday. But his nomination is a \u201cvery difficult scenario for us. He is very skeptical toward Ukraine and this war.\u201d <\/p>\n
That sense of alarm may be more widespread amid calls for U.S. President Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy just months before the presidential election, compelling foreign partners to more seriously consider the prospect of a second Trump presidency. <\/p>\n
During his first four years in office, the Republican president threated to wind down the U.S. contribution to NATO and hectored alliance members, especially Germany, for not spending enough on defense. <\/p>\n
That was before the war in Ukraine, where U.S. military support has been crucial for Kyiv to stay in the fight. Vance has been a staunch critic of this approach. A recent Russian missile attack on a children\u2019s hospital in Kyiv didn\u2019t change his mind.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s tragic and terrible,\u201d Vance, who served with the U.S. military in Iraq, told Bloomberg on Monday. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t change my underlying view that America doesn\u2019t have the capacity and doesn\u2019t have the interest to respond to every tragedy that exists in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Vance has also been very candid about his position on Ukraine in private meetings, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. He argued that the U.S. should spend aid money it gives Kyiv on schools and hospitals at home instead of those in Ukraine, the person said.<\/p>\n
In an April op-ed for the New York Times, Vance characterized the war as unwinnable due to Russia\u2019s large military-industrial capacity and the problems that Ukraine\u2019s aging population present for further rounds of mobilization. <\/p>\n
\u201cA defensive strategy can work\u201d for Ukraine, he said while making clear he opposed sending Patriot missile systems that enable the country to shoot down Russian missiles and drones.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe takes an even more radical stance on Ukraine than Trump and wants to end military support,\u201d said Nils Schmid, the foreign affairs spokesman for the ruling Social Democrats in German parliament. \u201cVance owes his entire political career to Trump and would also put personal loyalty to Trump above the constitution as vice president.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Vance\u2019s criticism of expensive foreign entanglements shares much with U.S. isolationists, he isn\u2019t opposed to them in principle. For him, China is the biggest threat to the U.S. and needs to be prioritized accordingly. \u201cThe thing that we need to prevent more than anything is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan,\u201d he told the Heritage Foundation in April 2023. <\/p>\n
That provides an opening for Europe to make its case to Vance, one senior official said. The message would need to be that dropping support for Ukraine would be seen as weakness in Beijing, said a diplomat with knowledge of the matter.<\/p>\n
The bloc should try to convince him that China would see defeat for Ukraine as a sign of U.S. weakness, the official said. That could feed into Beijing\u2019s calculations on Taiwan.<\/p>\n
As for whether a U.S. pivot away from Europe would bear risks, Vance appeared skeptical, saying at the Munich Security Conference that he didn\u2019t think Russian President Vladimir Putin represented an existential threat to Europe. To the extent that Putin did, he continued, Europe must foot the bill by itself to deter him.<\/p>\n
Where that leaves European NATO allies is best seen in a testy exchange on X, the social media platform, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a stance which echoes Trump\u2019s own words in March that he would encourage Russia to \u201cdo whatever the hell they want\u201d to NATO members who do not pay their fair share to the alliance. In Poland\u2019s case, at least, the country has been NATO\u2019s top spender and plans to commit 5% of economic output on defense next year.<\/p>\n
If Trump wins, European leaders would have to learn anew to speak this transactional language, said EU diplomats.<\/p>\n
\u2014With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Silvia Killingsworth and Patrick Donahue.<\/p>\n
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