For months, U.S. President Joe Biden has been urging Israel to wind down its war on Hamas in Gaza. For more than a year, he pointedly withheld a White House invitation to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hoping to use it as a reward for good behavior.<\/p>\n
Yet this coming week, as Israeli warplanes continue attacking Gaza, Biden is due to receive Netanyahu Tuesday in the Oval Office, and, in a rare honor, the Israeli leader will address Congress. It\u2019s a visit seen by many \u2014 including European and Arab allies \u2014 as a potent symbol of Biden\u2019s declining ability to impose his will on the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cBiden has been perceived as old and weak by important Arab leaders for a while,\u201d said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at London\u2019s International Institute for Strategic Studies. \u201cThe difficulty in shaping Israel\u2019s conduct of its war in Gaza has only added to the perception of weakness.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a view shared increasingly among U.S. allies, as well, according to European officials who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters.<\/p>\n
And that was before the last few days, which have brought a crescendo of calls for Biden, 81, to withdraw from the presidential race, along with a case of Covid that led Netanyahu to adjust his schedule for the meeting. The White House announcement that Netanyahu will also see Vice President Kamala Harris only added to the impression.<\/p>\n
By contrast, the visit has the whiff of triumph for Netanyahu, 74. Summoned by both Republicans and Democrats for his fourth speech to Congress, he will surpass Winston Churchill as the world leader with the most invitations. Arriving in grand fashion on a new plane with living quarters and conference room, the country\u2019s longest-serving premier, who presided over the worst security breach in its history, one that left 1,200 dead, remains likely to stay in office at least through early 2025.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a visit doomed to succeed,\u201d lamented Nimrod Novik, a former top Israeli government adviser and Netanyahu opponent, who sent a letter to all members of Congress on behalf of 530 former top security officials rejecting his policies.<\/p>\n
Netanyahu is in a better position than many would have predicted just months ago. His troops say they\u2019re wrapping up major operations in Gaza and have largely dismantled Hamas\u2019s military infrastructure. They believe they killed its military leader Mohammed Deif recently. Israeli assets \u2014 bonds and currency \u2014 have strengthened this month, recovering their heavy losses early in the year.<\/p>\n
Still, this is a fraught moment for Israel and for Netanyahu, whose popularity remains near lows. After more than nine months of warfare, dozens of hostages taken on Oct. 7 remain in captivity. Hamas\u2019 leader Yahya Sinwar is still at large. More than 38,000 have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah is firing missiles at its north, where tens of thousands have been forced out of their homes. A drone from Yemen\u2019s Houthis penetrated Tel Aviv on Friday, killing a man and spreading terror. Israel retaliated a day later with strikes on a Houthi-held port in Yemen.<\/p>\n
For Biden, a president who prides himself on his foreign policy prowess, the relationship with Israel since Oct. 7 has underlined the challenges he faces – even before the latest string of electoral setbacks at home.<\/p>\n
Privately, U.S. officials have long been frustrated by Netanyahu, but worry that being too confrontational jeopardizes Washington\u2019s ability to influence Israel\u2019s behavior when it comes to important U.S. priorities, including the humanitarian situation inside Gaza. Results there have been limited \u2014 the White House this month announced it was giving up on a failed plan to deliver aid with a temporary pier \u2014 and done little to calm the uproar of protest from Biden\u2019s allies among progressive Democrats over his embrace of Israel.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe administration has suggested quietly and not so quietly what it thought that the Israeli government should do,\u201d said Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. \u201cIn the main, the Israeli government has not listened to it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Biden\u2019s hoping to get a preview of the speech when he meets Netanyahu, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday. \u201cPolitics and speeches are always unpredictable,\u201d Sullivan said. \u201cBut our expectation is that his speech will be one that doesn’t look like 2015,\u201d when Netanyahu angered then-President Barack Obama with an address to Congress denouncing its nuclear deal with Iran.<\/p>\n
This time, authorities are preparing for protests from both sides around Netanyahu\u2019s visit. Some members of Congress say they\u2019ll boycott his speech.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the Israeli leader has been working to patch things up with Donald Trump, now the front-runner in November\u2019s election. Close relations between the two had curdled after Netanyahu angered Trump by congratulating Biden on his election victory in 2020, one that Trump refused to accept. As recently as April, Trump laid the blame for the Oct. 7 attack squarely on Netanyahu in an interview with Time magazine.<\/p>\n
But this month, Trump seemed to signal forgiveness, reposting Netanyahu\u2019s message of support after an assassination attempt left the U.S. candidate lightly injured. <\/p>\n
Go-betweens are trying to organize a meeting or phone call on this visit. <\/p>\n
Where a second Trump administration would stand on Israel and the Mideast is unclear. Trump has told Israel to \u201cdo what you have to do\u201d in Gaza and denounced pro-Palestinian protesters in the U.S. He invited the family of a hostage still being held in Gaza to the Republican National Convention this month. His calls for a hard line on Iran also echo Netanyahu\u2019s.<\/p>\n
But while a new Trump era would likely embrace a strong pro-Israel line, his unpredictability has many wary.<\/p>\n
And that\u2019s worrying some in Israel. Meanwhile, pressures on Netanyahu are increasing, potentially pushing him to accept a hostage deal.<\/p>\n
Especially notable is that some of Netanyahu\u2019s top aides and members of the security establishment have grown openly critical of him. <\/p>\n
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a fellow member of the majority Likud party, sat at his office conference table earlier this month and laid out differences with Netanyahu in what Israel can concede in negotiations with Hamas for hostages. <\/p>\n
In a briefing with Bloomberg, Gallant said the moment for a hostage deal is now and mustn\u2019t be allowed to pass. He said Hamas \u2014 deemed a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union \u2014 as a military organization is essentially destroyed, calling it a \u201cshell without muscles,\u201d adding its importing routes have been blocked and arms production facilities blown up. \u201cThey will no longer be able to smuggle in materials or manufacture arms,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The military says it\u2019s destroyed key tunnels, killed some 14,000 fighters and half the leadership of the military wing. So, Gallant says, Israel must pursue the deal put forward by Biden for a six-week pause in fighting that would yield some of those abducted for many more Palestinian prisoners. The return of hostages, he said, \u201cis the highest moral imperative at this time.\u201d<\/p>\n
There are about 120 hostages still left in Gaza but intelligence estimates put the number still alive at around 50. <\/p>\n
Netanyahu is taking with him on his new executive jet to Washington relatives of hostages and former hostages. Some declined his invitation out of anger that he\u2019s making too many demands on the negotiations, making it impossible for them to succeed. Increasingly, hostage families consider him an obstacle to their cause.<\/p>\n
His critics say Netanyahu yields to his hard-right coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, because without them, his government would collapse and they fear that a temporary cease-fire will turn into a permanent one. Critics also say by prolonging the war, Netanyahu delays any investigation of the failures that led to the Hamas attack and extends his time in office. The prime minister and his closest aides and supporters dismiss all that, saying he\u2019s focused on Israel\u2019s security beyond the short term. <\/p>\n
A key sticking point is whether Israeli forces can yield control of the border area between Gaza and the Egyptian Sinai which they seized in this war and where they\u2019ve found some 20 smuggling tunnels. Netanyahu says Israel can\u2019t leave, which Hamas is demanding; Gallant says it can, certainly for the six weeks of the deal. <\/p>\n
Amir Avivi, a retired brigadier general who heads a hawkish organization of ex-security officials, says if Israel leaves the border, a multibillion-dollar arms smuggling industry will start right back up. \u201cWe need boots on the ground to control the border,\u201d he says, echoing Netanyahu\u2019s argument.<\/p>\n
The Oct. 7 attack has driven most of Israel to the right on security and the Palestinian issue, as evidenced by a vote of parliament last week rejecting a Palestinian state under any circumstances. That reversed years of at least officially seeking a two-state solution. For most of the world, a Palestinian state is seen as vital to regional peace, and U.S. officials said so again after that vote.<\/p>\n
The fact is that Israel has become an international pariah due to the war, and that worries Israelis. Its leaders are facing sanctions, its scholars and athletes boycotts. Israelis fear another Oct. 7 \u2014 when thousands of militants broke into Israel, killing and kidnapping \u2014 is only a matter of time. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s led many to push Netanyahu to take the hostage deal and repair its international standing in the hope of a stronger regional alliance with countries like Saudi Arabia. <\/p>\n
While U.S. officials feel Netanyahu has defied them frequently, the view in Israel is that the administration\u2019s pressures were actually often successful. Far more food and aid were let into Gaza and almost certainly fewer civilians killed as a result. And a deal over hostages appears to be emerging.<\/p>\n
Indeed, both publicly and privately, U.S. officials are cautiously optimistic that an agreement can be reached to secure a cease-fire in Gaza. They dismiss Netanyahu\u2019s tough talk as posturing that will continue until the moment he signs a deal.<\/p>\n
_____<\/p>\n
(With assistance from Courtney McBride, Samy Adghirni and Iain Marlow.)<\/p>\n
_____<\/p>\n