Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has been in office for less than a month, but the United States already sees its best opportunity in two decades to get its alliance with Thailand back on track after ties were strained under the previous military-backed regime.<\/p>\n
The democratically elected leader is in New York this week for the United Nations General Assembly and is reportedly bringing his incoming military chief for security talks with the U.S. While Srettha is seeking an audience with President Joe Biden, he\u2019s indicated that any rapprochement won\u2019t come at the expense of China.<\/p>\n
The new premier wants to forge closer ties with the West as he faces increasing pressure to reinvigorate an economy that has lagged the growth of its neighbors even before the pandemic. While in the U.S., he\u2019ll also court investment from Microsoft Corp., Google and Tesla Inc.<\/p>\n
Whether the Biden meeting will happen is unclear, as the U.S. weighs how to engage a government propped up by the pro-military establishment that took power through a coup in 2014.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s also the question of how long Thailand\u2019s ruling coalition, comprised of former foes, can last while the pro-democracy party that won the most votes in the general election continues to face the threat of being dissolved.<\/p>\n
Even so, Washington sees a rare chance to significantly advance the relationship across a range of areas, from investment and trade to education exchanges and energy, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. That could also extend to military equipment, including to upgrade Thailand\u2019s existing aircraft, said the official.<\/p>\n
Doing so could help restore ties with an ally that\u2019s increasingly turning to China to boost its key industries just as the U.S. seeks to reshape its regional alliances in the face of growing competition with Beijing.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe 2014 coup was deeply damaging to Thailand\u2019s international heft and it forced the military government to seek support from China, and since then, Thai foreign policy has been beholden to China,\u201d said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. \u201cSo, with the new government there will be a qualitative change.\u201d<\/p>\n
Thailand is one of the United States\u2019 oldest partners in Asia and, along with the Philippines, is just one of two treaty allies it has in Southeast Asia. During the Vietnam war, it provided the U.S. critical military access, and today stands as a staging ground for the region\u2019s largest joint exercises. Washington also counts Thailand as a key regional law enforcement partner.<\/p>\n
Those ties were strained by a cycle of coups and street protests over the years as military-backed governments cracked down on pro-democracy groups. In 2014, the U.S. condemned the coup led by former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, curtailing financial assistance required by its appropriations law.<\/p>\n
The need to improve the economy pushed the generals closer to China, which has emerged as Thailand\u2019s top source of investment, according to the Thai Board of Investments. Chinese companies pledged some $1.7 billion in the first half of this year, mostly in electronics parts manufacturing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have had good relationships with the U.S. for 160 years. With China, we have many Chinese descendants, including me,\u201d Srettha said Monday after disclosing over the weekend that he\u2019ll visit the mainland next month. \u201cChina is also key to stimulating our economy going forward. We need to maintain our neutral stance and not take sides.\u201d <\/p>\n
As a result, not everyone is convinced that the new government will be quick to warm to the U.S.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t see Thailand moving into the direction of the Philippines, where they have openly embraced the relationship more closely and essentially gone in the opposite direction,\u201d said Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. <\/p>\n
The U.S. needs a stronger economic policy to match its security ambitions for the region, Kurlantzick said.<\/p>\n
Regardless, the Pentagon will explore cooperation in new domains such as space and cyberspace and in its mutual defense education programs and combined military training exercises, spokesman Lt. Col. Martin Meiners, said in an email.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ll continue to seek opportunities to engage with our Thai allies on a range of security issues, to include the modernization of the Thai military,\u201d he said, without commenting on any potential deal to provide equipment to bolster its fleet of aging military jets, following reports that the U.S. declined to sell Thailand F-35 stealth fighters.<\/p>\n
The U.S. could also solicit Thailand\u2019s support over the conflict in neighboring Myanmar as nations involved in providing aid to the country seek to expand a humanitarian corridor. The U.S. may also want to renew talks over sanctioning a state-owned oil and gas company controlled by the Myanmar junta that Thai companies have interests in.<\/p>\n
Given the opportunity, Srettha will have to determine how far he wants to go in rebalancing ties. Thailand has already moved to resume negotiations for a free-trade agreement with the European Union, the first time since talks were frozen after the 2014 coup.<\/p>\n
Srettha\u2019s foreign policy team is \u201cvery eager to get Thailand back on its feet,\u201d said Thitinan, of Chulalongkorn University. \u201cThey have to be careful in balancing the U.S.-China competition and in doing so, I think, more nuanced.\u201d<\/p>\n
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(With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Patpicha Tanakasempipat.)<\/p>\n
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