Saudi Arabia\u2019s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had a vision for the Middle East that placed shared economic benefits at its heart \u2014 including an historic alliance with Israel.<\/p>\n
Even a potential solution over a Palestinian state didn\u2019t seem beyond the realms of possibility \u2014 a longstanding sticking point between the two countries. \u201cGood negotiations\u201d are ongoing to achieve that goal, the 38-year-old de facto Saudi leader said in an interview with Fox News last month. The U.S. is pushing the talks and \u201cthe biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold war\u201d is a realistic prospect, he told the TV channel.<\/p>\n
After last weekend\u2019s deadly attacks by militant group Hamas on Israel, those hopes have been upended. The incursion also turns attention toward Iran, which has never wavered from its policy of armed resistance to Israel and is a financial and military backer to Hamas.<\/p>\n
And Crown Prince Mohammed appears to be already tempering his enthusiasm for a deal with Israel in the short-term by defaulting to the kingdom\u2019s more solemn official stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe kingdom will continue to stand by the Palestinian nation in its quest for its legitimate rights,\u201d he said in a press release after a phone conversation with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at London\u2019s Chatham House think tank, said the attack underscored the idea that a policy of \u201ccontainment\u201d on Iran and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict isn\u2019t an effective way of managing regional security.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis pours cold water on the mirage of de-escalation,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Minimizing Threats <\/p>\n
MBS, as the oil-rich kingdom\u2019s crown prince is known, had previously taken steps to deescalate regional tensions and minimize threats to his multi-trillion-dollar plan to transform Saudi Arabia\u2019s economy by 2030. The kingdom is the home of Islam\u2019s two most holiest sites, giving it particular importance in the region and creating a tricky balancing act between religious and secular objectives. <\/p>\n
The prince\u2019s pitch has been that economic development and prosperity in his country will benefit a region mired for too long in wars and ideological differences. <\/p>\n
To that end, he forged a Chinese-brokered deal in March with regional rival Iran, embarked on direct negotiations with Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen \u2014 against whom he had waged war for eight years \u2014 and made overtures to Syria\u2019s pariah President Bashar Al-Assad.<\/p>\n
He has said Saudi Arabia\u2019s own economic success hinged on a stable, peaceful and thriving region that gave everyone including Iranians and Palestinians \u201ca good life.\u201d He told Fox News he wanted something substantive for the Palestinians as part of a three-way bargain with Israel and the U.S., but declined to be specific.<\/p>\n
Deadly Fallout<\/p>\n
Hamas\u2019s surprise attack on Israel \u2014 which has left at least 1,500 people dead on both sides \u2014 effectively rules out any agreement between Israel and the Palestinian authorities that would help achieve Saudi Arabia\u2019s objectives. That means any normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is probably on hold for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
Hamas\u2019s attack \u201cstalls Saudi Arabia\u2019s stabilization and development plans\u201d for the region, said Lina Khatib, director of SOAS University of London\u2019s Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n
That might actually be a lesser worry for MBS than how events have been playing out among the Saudi population.<\/p>\n
In a country where the government tightly controls social media posts and people have been arrested for being too outspoken about certain issues, many Saudis took to the internet to praise Hamas\u2019s actions and denounce Israel.<\/p>\n
Othman Al-Khuwaiter, a Saudi energy sector expert and columnist based in the eastern Saudi city of Dhahran, reveled in what he characterized as the humiliation of Israelis.<\/p>\n
\u201cGod willing, this will be seared in their memories forever,\u201d Al-Khuwaiter wrote. \u201cThey are under siege just when they thought they were masters in full control.\u201d<\/p>\n
At the start of the attack over the weekend, Saad Al-Bazei, a professor of English at King Saud University in Riyadh, hailed \u201cthe unprecedented and glorious achievements of the Palestinian resistance deep within Israel.\u201d <\/p>\n
Social media accounts of individuals that normally post every utterance by MBS and praise his every move were quick to hit back.<\/p>\n
\u2018Grand Project\u2019<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is an attack on Saudi Arabia\u2019s grand project for the Middle East and we must be in solidarity with the state of Israel,\u201d Badr Al-Saadoun, a Riyadh-based lawyer, wrote on social-media site X.<\/p>\n
The Saudi Foreign Ministry called for an \u201cimmediate end to escalation by both sides\u201d but added that \u201cthe exploding situation\u201d was a result of Israel\u2019s \u201coccupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the systematic provocations against their sanctities.\u201d The statement was widely shared by Saudis defending Hamas\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that has been involved for years in efforts to forge Saudi-Israeli normalization, said the statement angered many of Israel\u2019s allies in the U.S. and prompted calls to Saudi officials in Riyadh and Reema bint Bandar, the Saudi ambassador in the U.S. <\/p>\n
A spokesperson for the embassy said he couldn\u2019t immediately comment.<\/p>\n
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed massive retaliation for Hamas\u2019s actions, it would be unthinkable for MBS to deliver an Israel normalization deal to his people during carnage in Palestinian territories, Dubowitz said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is very much what\u201d Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei \u201cintended,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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