Shortly after New Year\u2019s Day in 2019, China landed an unmanned spacecraft on the far side of the moon, where no mission had gone before. U.S. intelligence officials say they did so quietly, taking their time to verify the rover had landed in one piece and protecting themselves from embarrassment. Hours passed before Beijing announced its historic achievement to the world.<\/p>\n
The landing was a wake-up call in Washington. China\u2019s space program was advancing with unexpected speed. Beijing would soon assemble in record time a space station orbiting Earth, catching U.S. officials off guard once again.<\/p>\n
U.S. intelligence officials acknowledge that China\u2019s sudden advances had surprised them. They are no longer surprised. The intelligence community now assesses with confidence that China is poised to succeed in landing humans on the moon and constructing a permanent base camp at the lunar south pole by the end of this decade, four intelligence officials told McClatchy, just as NASA has fallen behind its own deadlines to achieve similar milestones.<\/p>\n
It is the first time intelligence officials have publicly detailed their concerns that China may win the race to return people to the moon and establish a lunar outpost \u2014 an achievement that could set back U.S. plans for human space travel for decades to come.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt wasn\u2019t too long ago that China said they were intending to land by 2035. So that date keeps getting closer and closer,\u201d NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told McClatchy in an interview. \u201cI take it very seriously that China, in fact, is in a headlong race to get to the moon.\u201d<\/p>\n
Neither country plans to stop at the moon. Both see it as a training ground for missions to Mars in the 2030s, vying to make history by sending humans deep into space and landing them for the first time on another planet.<\/p>\n
\u201cBefore, it was more of an afterthought \u2014 China was nowhere to be seen,\u201d one U.S. intelligence official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. \u201cToday, China gets the lion\u2019s share of intelligence attention.\u201d<\/p>\n
A second U.S. intelligence official said that \u201cspace is very evident to China as a place they need to counter U.S. power.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be the space power of the 2020s,\u201d the official added. \u201cThey want to be the space power of the 21st century, the way we were in the 20th.\u201d<\/p>\n
More than half a century after the United States put men on the moon, a space race is on for the new millennium. The first great competition of world powers since the end of the Cold War is spurring a new era of exploration that could send humans on missions far beyond those of the Apollo program 50 years ago.<\/p>\n
But if the original space race with the Soviet Union was a sprint, this new competition with China is going to be a marathon.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe United States will continue to lead the world,\u201d Vice President Kamala Harris, who also serves as director of the National Space Council, told McClatchy in a statement. \u201cOur unrivaled network of allies and partners will power our deep space exploration, inspire the next generation of explorers, and will ensure that advancements in space benefit all of humanity.\u201d<\/p>\n
At NASA, all of these goals are linked, forming a \u201c Moon to Mars Architecture<\/a>\u201d that is breaking modern precedent in Washington for space initiatives with sustained support and funding from consecutive Republican and Democratic administrations.<\/p>\n \u201cIs China a catalyst? It should be. Chinese ambitions for both the moon and Mars should be taken very seriously,\u201d said Dean Cheng, senior adviser to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. \u201cBecause from their perspective, it\u2019s not just about planting a flag. There\u2019s a whole freight train worth of baggage and meaning associated with both of these missions.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis is to establish presence,\u201d Cheng said, \u201cbut then to establish the rules.\u201d<\/p>\n Competition is already inching toward conflict closer to home. Since landing a rover on the far side of the moon, China has more than doubled<\/a> its number of satellites orbiting Earth, and has launched a space plane that remained in low-Earth orbit for several months before ascending and releasing a projectile, defense officials said. Beijing is already fielding weapons in space<\/a>, including electronic and cyberspace equipment, but also devices that can stalk and latch on to satellites to disrupt their orbit.<\/p>\n Nelson expressed concern that China may reach its lunar milestones first \u2014 a development that could allow Beijing to monopolize resources critical to a sustained presence on the surface, such as frozen water hiding in crevices of permanent darkness, and solar energy from mountain peaks bathed in eternal sunlight.<\/p>\n \u201cIf China were to land and begin an outpost there, I think it would be a Sputnik moment for the American people,\u201d said G. Scott Hubbard, NASA\u2019s first Mars czar and former director of the Ames Research Center at NASA who now chairs SpaceX\u2019s crew safety advisory panel. \u201cThey could claim it as their own.\u201d<\/p>\n The Chinese Embassy in Washington told McClatchy in a statement that \u201couter space is not a wrestling ground, but an important field for win-win cooperation. The exploration and peaceful uses of outer space is humanity\u2019s common endeavor and should benefit all.\u201d<\/p>\n Senior officials in the Biden administration told McClatchy that China\u2019s program could be the motivation the United States needs to reestablish the wonder and drive of spaceflight that once captured the American imagination. \u201cThere are positive aspects to competition,\u201d one official said, adding, \u201cone person\u2019s pressure is another person\u2019s inspiration.\u201d<\/p>\n Beijing surprised Washington once again in May, when its military-run Manned Space Agency held a press conference ostensibly to deliver a routine announcement.<\/p>\n Agency officials were introducing three new Chinese astronauts who would depart for China\u2019s Tiangong Space Station the following day \u2014 part of a steady cadence of new crew members being sent into orbit every six months, an impressive achievement in and of itself. Then officials added<\/a> that Beijing intends to land humans on the moon by 2030, moving their timeline up by years.<\/p>\n China\u2019s Academy of Military Sciences has previously said<\/a> that space \u201chas already become a new domain of modern military struggle.\u201d Neither the China National Space Administration nor the China Manned Space Agency responded to multiple email requests for comment.<\/p>\n China\u2019s public plan is to use robots to scout the south pole for lunar water in 2026 and begin establishing its base there, to be called the International Lunar Research Station, in 2028. Beijing aims to complete a new Long March 10 rocket system for its crewed missions by 2027.<\/p>\n U.S. intelligence officials say it would be \u201chigh risk\u201d for the Chinese to attempt their first human landing at the south pole, but also believe Beijing will try to distinguish their first landing from Apollo.<\/p>\n \u201cIf there is a prestige goal,\u201d one intelligence official said, \u201cit is the south pole of the moon.\u201d<\/p>\n Spurred to action by China\u2019s sudden advances, the Trump administration launched the Artemis program, which began with an uncrewed orbital mission in 2022. NASA plans for a crew to orbit the moon next year with Artemis II. Then, in December 2025 \u2014 already a year later than initially anticipated \u2014 Artemis III plans to return a crew to the moon for the first time in over 53 years, including the first woman and first person of color.<\/p>\n But a senior NASA official said in a public meeting over the summer<\/a> that \u201cdifficulties\u201d facing SpaceX, the private company building the spacecraft NASA plans to use for the Artemis III mission, could cause further delays.<\/p>\n SpaceX\u2019s Starship spacecraft has never successfully flown in orbit, and must do so several times before flying Artemis III for NASA. Recent setbacks in the program have been mocked and celebrated on Chinese state media. SpaceX declined multiple requests for comment.<\/p>\n Nelson acknowledged in the interview that Artemis III may have to be pushed back. \u201cThere may be some slippage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n If Starship fails to meet the moment, Washington may well lose the immediate race to the moon and have to start over on its planning architecture for Mars. SpaceX is expected to attempt a second orbital launch this weekend<\/a>. A senior administration official told McClatchy that the White House would be monitoring the test and its impacts on the Artemis timeframe.<\/p>\n NASA has also been noncommittal on its plans for a lunar base. As recently as 2022, the agency said it planned to establish<\/a> an Artemis Base Camp at the south pole by the end of the decade. But it has since gone quiet on the plan. NASA\u2019s most recent budget to Congress referenced a \u201cfoundation surface habitat\u201d at the south pole as a \u201ckey element\u201d for future missions, but offered no timeline.<\/p>\n NASA told McClatchy it is still working to \u201cdevelop the infrastructure needed for a long-term human presence\u201d and provided no new schedule for the outpost, other than to say that, after returning humans to the moon, missions beyond Artemis IV in 2028 will establish an \u201cannual launch cadence.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cPeaks of Eternal Light\u201d along the rim of Shackleton Crater at the south pole of the moon. \u201cFuture Artemis missions to the Moon\u2019s South Pole may use these highly illuminated regions to make use of solar energy and support a base camp,\u201d NASA says. Image Credit: NASA\/GSFC\/Arizona State University But if China continues to meet its own timeline, as the U.S. intelligence community expects, then by 2028, its Chang\u2019e 8 mission will have already begun laying the foundation of their base at the south pole \u2014 and the stage for a potential battle over sovereignty, location and lunar resources.<\/p>\n \u201cTo do all of this, you need energy. And there are some tiny slivers of land right alongside suspected water in the permanent shadows \u2014 I\u2019m talking about a few thousand acres \u2014 that are in near-continuous sunlight,\u201d Hubbard said. \u201cBoth the United States and China are aiming for those peaks of eternal light as a base.\u201d<\/p>\n There is no precedent for such a conflict and no laws to govern it outside a 1967 treaty widely seen as thin and unenforceable<\/a>, said Thomas Roberts, adjunct fellow with the CSIS Aerospace Security Project.<\/p>\n \u201cBoth actors want to go to the same small region of the lunar surface at the same time,\u201d Roberts said. \u201cIf you were to land another lunar lander somewhere near an existing site, the physical nature of the lunar regolith would inspire a debris cloud that could really tamper with sensitive instrumentation.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s totally fine if your goal is to visit the far side of the moon, which is the size of an ocean,\u201d he added. \u201cIt\u2019s less fine if you\u2019re looking for particular properties of lunar rotation that happen in a tiny fraction of territory.\u201d<\/p>\n U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that, should it achieve dominance at the south pole, China could indeed attempt to deny physical access to the United States and its partners, limiting their ability to sustain a permanent presence on the surface or reach rare minerals and isotopes<\/a> increasingly scarce at home.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe they will try to exploit lunar activity to the max,\u201d one of the U.S. intelligence officials said. \u201cChina may have the ability to create an advantageous position to influence the movement of other powers, including the United States, to and around the moon.\u201d<\/p>\n Washington has tried to create a new set of rules to govern this otherwise untamed frontier, drafting the Artemis Accords to \u201cset out a practical set of principles to guide space exploration,\u201d according to the State Department. The list of signatories has grown<\/a> to 32 nations. China is not among them. Instead, Beijing has recruited a small list of countries<\/a> to join its lunar base program including Russia, Venezuela, Pakistan, South Africa and Belarus.<\/p>\n Three senior Biden administration officials told McClatchy that the White House believes there is still time to \u201cshape the environment\u201d for what kind of behavior the world will accept from the future of space travel.<\/p>\n \u201cThe next few years \u2014 and especially the next year or two \u2014 is going to be about the United States continuing to exert leadership to set the norms and standards that we want, and aligning with our partners,\u201d one senior official said.<\/p>\nDash to the lunar south pole<\/strong><\/h3>\n