Taiwan is working with friendly nations on how to respond to a possible economic blockade by China, a scenario that appears more likely than a direct military attack on the island, according to a senior Taiwanese diplomat. <\/p>\n
Chinese military exercises are increasingly aimed at \u201cwinning the war without an actual fight,\u201d Taiwan\u2019s deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee said in an interview. \u201cAn economic blockade is, for sure, one of the possible options that China is seriously looking at.\u201d <\/p>\n
Lee\u2019s remarks came after the People\u2019s Liberation Army conducted three days of military drills around Taiwan, a response to President Tsai Ing-wen\u2019s travel through the U.S., where she met House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told Bloomberg that the intensity of the latest exercises was on a par with Beijing\u2019s reaction last August, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island.<\/p>\n
While Beijing and Washington disagree on everything from technology to human rights, China views Taiwan as its territory and a top national security priority. That, combined with President Joe Biden\u2019s repeated vows to defend the island if it\u2019s attacked, have fueled concerns that Taiwan could be the next geopolitical flashpoint after Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Lee said Chinese President Xi Jinping will have to take into account the costs any conflict would have on his nation\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cA blockade is one of the possible scenarios, but it is actually very costly and risky for any country, especially China, to implement,\u201d Lee said. \u201cBecause economic blockades can easily escalate into military confrontation not only between Taiwan and China, but also between China and other trading partners that are doing a lot of commercial activities with Taiwan.\u201d<\/p>\n
Over the past two years, Taiwan has been accelerating its efforts to stockpile critical goods and minerals and has introduced new legislation to bolster the island\u2019s resilience. Being ready to respond to a blockade has become a top priority, though planning is currently at an \u201cinception\u201d stage, Lee added. <\/p>\n
Some U.S. officials have said China wants to have its military capable of overrunning Taiwan by 2027. Admiral Harry Harris, the former commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told Congress in February that the U.S. ignores the prospect of China invading Taiwan within years \u201cat our peril.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not the message shared by top current U.S. officials, including Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said they don\u2019t think an attack on Taiwan by China is imminent. But President Joe Biden\u2019s repeated statements that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in case of attack has prompted China to argue that America is abandoning decades of support for the \u201cOne China\u201d policy that has guided policy toward the island.<\/p>\n
A veteran Chinese diplomat warned this week that unless the U.S. changes its attitude toward the nation, there\u2019s no point in having talks on ways to safeguard the relationship between the world\u2019s two biggest economies. And Zhu Fenglian, spokeswoman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, said Wednesday that China\u2019s latest military drills were a stern warning to people in Taiwan advocating independence and \u201cforeign interference.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cWe will take resolute measures to foil any external intervention and separatist behavior, and safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,\u201d Zhu said.<\/p>\n
Lee acknowledged that the current tensions over the island could have an economic cost, as companies reassess their investments in Taiwan \u2014 the world\u2019s leading manufacturer of high-end semiconductors \u2014 or look to diversify operations out of the region. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere are areas where we are seeing a concern, especially from the private sector and especially from the foreign investor communities,\u201d he said. Yet the data so far don\u2019t show any real impact, he added, and called for more balanced rhetoric about the likely risks. <\/p>\n
Lee said he didn\u2019t expect the U.S.-Taiwan relationship to change, regardless of who wins in the island\u2019s January 2024 presidential election or the American election 10 months later. Support for Taiwan is backed by Democrats and Republicans alike in Washington, with congressional action and visits to the island picking up steadily.<\/p>\n
The \u201cU.S.-Taiwan partnership is actually a long-term partnership \u2014 it\u2019s not about which party is governing,\u201d he said. \u201cThere\u2019s also a strong consensus that maintaining a long-term, solid and united partnership with the United States is of critical importance for Taiwan.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the economic front, Washington and Taipei have been in talks on a trade framework that isn\u2019t binding and doesn\u2019t include any discussion of market access. But momentum has grown in the U.S. Congress and inside the Biden administration to turn the existing framework into a traditional free trade agreement. Lee said the U.S. should consider such a shift as a \u201cstrategic move\u201d rather than a purely economic one. <\/p>\n
Whether or not that eventually happens, the two sides are on track to finalize some portions of the talks in the coming months and \u201cby the end of this year, we\u2019re going to see tangible results,\u201d Lee said.<\/p>\n
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