Early this week, shortly after Nicol\u00e1s Maduro held a sham referendum on whether Venezuela should annex the majority of neighboring Guyana, Presdient Biden\u2019s top national security advisers ordered a classified assessment of Venezuelan troop movements on and around the border, a U.S. defense official said. Maduro seemed to be acting on what had initially been viewed in Washington as a domestic political ploy. He would soon establish a combatant command to oversee the territory, known as Guayana Esequiba, and the White House wanted to know how serious he was.<\/p>\n
Multiple U.S. officials tell McClatchy and the Miami Herald they have yet to see the sort of activity along the border they would expect if Maduro intended to launch an imminent, full-scale invasion of the Essequibo, a region roughly the size of Florida.<\/p>\n
But even if Maduro planned to do so, taking over and occupying such a vast jungle terrain would be a challenge for a Venezuelan military that, while strong on paper, has been gutted of recruits over poor pay and meager food rations.<\/p>\n
Yet a crisis could still unfold far short of an invasion, U.S. officials say.<\/p>\n
A simple operation deploying a small unit of Venezuelan armed forces could be enough to force a global response to an event that would widely be seen as a violation of Guyana\u2019s sovereignty \u2014 yet another conflict over territorial integrity, this time prompted by an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as he conducts his own war of aggression in Ukraine and of China\u2019s President Xi Jinping, who vows to impose rule over Taiwan by any means necessary.<\/p>\n
Any armed conflict \u2014 large-scale or small \u2014 could be used by Maduro as a pretext to impose martial law at home ahead of an anticipated presidential election next year that, if free and fair, could end his reign. Maduro has faced international sanctions for years over his role in curbing Venezuelan democracy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Venezuelan armed forces might have enough equipment to make some kind of show of force, but it really does not have the men for a serious effort,\u201d said Manuel Cristopher Figuera, a retired major general in the Venezuelan army. \u201cThis is a farce \u2014 a perfect farce to declare martial law.\u201d<\/p>\n
The U.S. military conducted a military exercise in Guyana this week that a White House official referred to as \u201croutine.\u201d But a Guyanese official said the air operation, by U.S. special forces, was conducted in response to a request for military support from the United States by Guyana\u2019s president, Ifraan Ali, ahead of Venezuela\u2019s Dec. 3 referendum.<\/p>\n
It was a display of U.S. support for a country that has few means to defend itself on its own \u2014 even if Venezuela\u2019s forces are ill-equipped themselves.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019d be careful drawing too strong connective tissue between routine military operations that we do in the region and this particular issue,\u201d John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council in the White House, told reporters at a press briefing on Thursday. \u201cThat said, as I said before, we recognize the sovereign territory of Guyana, and as we do with many nations \u2014 sovereign nations \u2014 in the region, we conduct operations and exercises as appropriate.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe absolutely stand by our unwavering support for Guyana\u2019s sovereignty,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Venezuela\u2019s border with Guyana, defined by an international tribunal in 1899, runs over 500 miles of rivers and watersheds from the Atlantic Ocean to a tri-point border at Mount Roraima in Brazil.<\/p>\n
Far from being militarized, the border region is sparsely populated on either side and barely patrolled by a Venezuelan military that has suffered alongside the country\u2019s economy in recent years.<\/p>\n
On paper, the Venezuelan armed forces count more than 120,000 men among its ranks and possess roughly 600 armored vehicles and 200 main battle tanks, half of which are Soviet era T-72s. It also has 100 combat-capable planes and dozens of helicopters.<\/p>\n
But Venezuelan officers, active and retired, told the Miami Herald that the country\u2019s four military branches have been decimated in recent years by massive desertions. The Defense Ministry has been swamped by a wave of resignation requests from more than a quarter of its officer core, which are constantly turned down or placed on hold.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have had reports of battalion level units being shrunk down to about 95 men\u201d \u2014 about a fifth of their regular size \u2014 \u201cbecause they don\u2019t have anyone to fill those positions,\u201d a retired Venezuelan major said. \u201cThe actual operational capacity of the army is little more than a third.\u201d<\/p>\n
Officers consulted said they have not seen any evidence of a Venezuelan military buildup along the border, aside from a seasonal rotation of personnel.<\/p>\n
While not a new phenomenon, mass desertions have increased during the past three years amid rapidly deteriorating living conditions for officers and professional troops, whose salaries are among the lowest in the hemisphere. Growing discontent among uniformed men has forced the top brass to grant troops personal free time from their duties to be able to obtain second jobs to make ends meet.<\/p>\n
And an economic spiral, which has seen Venezuela\u2019s gross domestic product plunge by 75%, has also severely impaired the operational status of the country\u2019s military equipment. The air force, for example, has been forced to ground much of its fleet for lack of maintenance and parts.<\/p>\n
In some cases, fighter jets are capable of flying but are missing missiles, or are carrying bombs with lapsed life expectancy, Figuera said.<\/p>\n
Even if Maduro were to muster the men and equipment, a Venezuelan incursion into the Essequibo region would then have to traverse thick jungles and swampland.<\/p>\n
There are no roads between the two countries. And while some of Venezuela\u2019s armored vehicles do have amphibious capabilities, they would still be ill-fitted to cross through large swamps.<\/p>\n
In a hypothetical armed conflict, Venezuela could deploy its navy \u2014 which has one frigate and patrol boats \u2014 to block Georgetown, the Guyanan capital, and enter the nearby Essequibo River, establishing a potential beachhead on the west bank, Figuera said.<\/p>\n
But that beachhead would be isolated by land from the Venezuelan side, and would have a very precarious supply line, giving Venezuelan troops no other option than to stay near their boats.<\/p>\n
The difficulties of the terrain and the army\u2019s state of disrepair would make it very difficult for Venezuela to take military control of the vast region that it claims.<\/p>\n
Experts say Caracas could flex its muscles with an attempt to blockade Georgetown, or even bomb the Guyanan capital. But sustaining a military presence in the bordering country would be a fare more ambitious challenge.<\/p>\n
Despite Venezuela\u2019s weaknesses, Guyana\u2019s military by comparison is far weaker still.<\/p>\n
With military strength between 4,000 and 5,000 troops, Guyana would find itself at a disadvantage. In Georgetown, officials worry abouot not just a physical incursion but also of an air assault on their military headquarters or a cyberattack that could disrupt communications.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s no way Guyana can have a response, not even as a deterrence,\u201d said Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, a Guyana-born regional security expert.<\/p>\n
Guyana, Griffith said, would need to rely \u201con partners and friends and supporters, diplomatically and militarily.\u201d<\/p>\n