Kim Jong Un\u2019s bellicose rhetoric in recent weeks has revived speculation that the North Korean leader might be preparing for war.<\/p>\n
But Kim has at least one fresh reason to avoid plunging into conflict: North Korea\u2019s economy is quietly improving, with growth on pace to reach the fastest level in nearly a decade.<\/p>\n
Pyongyang\u2019s sales of ballistic missiles, artillery shells and other military equipment to sustain President Vladimir Putin\u2019s aggression in Ukraine is providing a jolt to an economy long isolated by international sanctions. <\/p>\n
While that may allow Kim to shun engagement with the West for years to come, it also reduces pressure on the 40-year-old leader to gamble on more drastic measures, including war. <\/p>\n
\u201cKim Jong Un knows well that nuclear use or war means the end of his regime,\u201d said Chun Yungwoo, South Korea\u2019s former chief envoy to international nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea. <\/p>\n
Combined with growing trade with China, North Korea\u2019s economy could expand 0.5% this year, according to Anwita Basu, head of Europe Country Risk for BMI and one of the few economists who tracks the nation. That would be the most since 2016, when tougher United Nations sanctions over Kim\u2019s nuclear and weapons programs came into effect. <\/p>\n
That level of growth won\u2019t make up for the lost output of recent years, when the country\u2019s borders were closed because of COVID-19 restrictions. But Basu says her estimate is partly based on data from South Korea\u2019s central bank, which doesn\u2019t fully account for North Korea\u2019s defense sector.<\/p>\n
\u201cIncreased demand for North Korean arms will necessarily raise revenue for the sector,\u201d Basu said, adding that by some estimates, about half the country\u2019s population is employed in some capacity by the defense industry. <\/p>\n
With the war in Ukraine grinding toward its third year, satellite imagery since October shows a steady flow of trade between North Korea and Russia that South Korea estimates includes more than 2 million rounds of artillery and several ballistic missiles. <\/p>\n
Ballistic missiles could be valued at several million dollars each and Russia would probably need to purchase launchers for the North Korean systems. With the cost of 155 millimeter artillery shells used by NATO countries now at about $3,000-$4,000 each, the total value of the munitions sent from North Korea to Moscow so far could reach into the billions of dollars, a huge figure for an economy that South Korea\u2019s central bank pegged at about $24.5 billion in 2022.<\/p>\n
And while there isn\u2019t a full accounting of what Kim is receiving in return, some of what Moscow is believed to be providing includes technology and support for Kim\u2019s military programs, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to Seoul in November.<\/p>\n
The boosted trade and economic jolt also mean North Korea\u2019s blustery talk of war, which recently includes abandoning a goal for \u201cpeaceful\u201d reunification with South Korea, is likely just that: bluster. <\/p>\n
Speculation has mounted that Kim has turned the corner on his bellicose outbursts and is readying for battle ever since a pair of prominent specialists published an article this month that Kim has made a strategic decision to go to war.<\/p>\n
In an article published on the 38 North website this month, Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker said the North Korean leader has abandoned the state\u2019s long-sought goal of normalizing relations with the U.S. <\/p>\n
\u201cPyongyang could be planning to move in ways that completely defy our calculations,\u201d they said, adding this points toward the prospect of a military solution to end the divide on the peninsula using his nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n
Kim pledged in a policy-setting address for 2024 that North Korea was ready to fight a war but had no intention of starting one. He also ratcheted up tensions by firing off artillery near the South Korean border island of Yeonpyeong \u2014 the scene of deadly confrontations in 2010.<\/p>\n
But the specter of an overwhelming response from the U.S. and South Korea that could wipe out his state and his leadership has served as a deterrent for years against a more aggressive move. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe is not yet ready or desperate enough to opt for a collective suicide,\u201d said Chun, who once helped broker a disarmament deal with Pyongyang.<\/p>\n
For now, the cooperation between North Korea and Russia is only expected to deepen, with Putin possibly visiting North Korea in the coming months. In addition, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik said he believes North Korea is preparing to send Moscow new types of tactical guided missiles that could help the Kremlin continue its grinding bombardments.<\/p>\n
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters in Washington this week that the U.S. is watching the situation in North Korea \u201cvery closely,\u201d adding \u201cwe remain confident that the defensive posture that we\u2019re maintaining on the peninsula is appropriate to the risk.\u201d<\/p>\n
North Korea also has a history of ratcheting up tensions ahead of elections. One vote he\u2019s certainly watching is South Korea\u2019s parliamentary election in April, which will determine if the progressive Democratic Party that backs rapprochement with Pyongyang will keep control or lose out to the conservative People Power Party of current President Yoon Suk Yeol.<\/p>\n
The other major election this year for Kim is in the U.S., which increasingly looks like a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Kim and Trump met three times and struck up a bonhomie that was punctuated with exchanges of letters \u2014 and all the while, Kim\u2019s arsenal of fissile material and missiles only grew larger.<\/p>\n
Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency who now works at U.S.-based management consulting firm LMI, said the North Korean leader would likely need to weigh the consequences of more aggressive military actions on both the South Korean election and the U.S. one in November.<\/p>\n
\u201cDoes it make sense for Kim to act now for the Seoul elections?\u201d she said. \u201cOr is it more effective to wait it out until a bigger, more consequential election.\u201d<\/p>\n
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